BRAZIL ECONOMICS
Analysts
Alexandre Schwartsman
Former Central Bank Deputy Governor
Cristina Pinotti
Former Chief Economist, DIVESPDatabanks
Events
Recent Country Insights
Lower growth; higher risk
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Mar 2025
GDP growth in the last quarter of 2024 came out below expectations. Although a certain slowdown was already anticipated, in ligt of high-frequency data previously released, output expansion in the period reached only 0.2%, compared to an average forecast of around 0.4% and very close to the lower...
Time is the master of reason
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Feb 2025
The appreciation of the Brazilian real at the beginning of 2025, close to 7.6%, partially reversed the exchange rate depreciation process observed throughout last year, which had intensified in December. This movement at the beginning of the year followed the weakening of the U.S. dollar in t...
The perils of Penelope
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Feb 2025
Copom’s current balance of risks highlights the asymmetry toward upside inflation risks, including economic overheating, given the positive output gap—one of the fundamentals of the current interest rate hike cycle. Economic slowdown and the consequent reduction of the output gap, thus reducing i...
Barking up the wrong tree
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Feb 2025
The government's recent efforts to reduce food and beverage prices suggest that it believes inflation exceeding the upper limit of the target range and its acceleration are consequences of higher food prices. However, as we discuss below, a significant portion of the deterioration results fro...
Not alone in the driver’s seat
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Feb 2025
The minutes of the last Copom meeting displayed a harsher tone compared to the statement released last week but kept open the next steps after the March meeting. For now, the indication of another 1 percentage point increase still stands.
A coy central bank in the face of inflation?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Feb 2025
Recent data suggests an unfavorable inflationary trend, marked by the acceleration of its underlying measures. Our forecast points to an inflation rate of 5.8% in 2025, above the level recorded in 2024 and, therefore, also above the tolerance limit for the inflation target. We use our semi-struct...
Playing with fire
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Jan 2025
As announced at the end of last year, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) raised the target for the benchmark interest rate to 13.25% per year and maintained its guidance for another hike of the same magnitude in the next meeting.
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Jan 2025
OVERVIEW OSTENSIBLE FRAILTY Still reeling from the impact of the emergency brain surgery he underwent in December to drain a hematoma caused by a fall in October, Lula, at 79, has confided to aides that he may lack the health to run in the 2026 election. What was visible to external obser...
Not so fast
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jan 2025
Monthly activity indicators point to a certain slowdown in the economy in the fourth quarter of 2024. Given the restrictive monetary policy and a possibly reduced fiscal impulse, we expect the cooling of economic activity to persist in 2025, with GDP projected to grow by 2.2%. However, we are mon...