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All the numbers add up — until they don’t. Changes in tax policy, interest rates and exchange rates can turn a great investment into a terrible one. In countries with higher volatility and lower transparency, macroeconomic due diligence is critical.
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Country Insights
No change, as expected
The CBRT/MPC left the policy rate unchanged at 37%, 300 bps below the funding rate, broadly as expected. There was no material change in the statement other than a more explicit...
Lula has expanded his lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in the polls, the Senate CCJ approved the PEC on the financial autonomy of the Central Bank, and the House approved a bill that would lead to free urban public transportation
The Genial/Quaest poll released yesterday showed that President Lula (PT) has expanded his lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) to ten percentage points in the first-round si...
Kazakhstan macro: high oil prices and the tax reform support budget revenues in 5M26
The Ministry of Finance announced that in 5M26, total revenues of the republican budget reached nearly KZT9.3 trln, or 40.5% of the annual plan. While this looks solid overall, ...
Russia: a brief market watch
The FX market saw sharp swings in early June, with the exchange rate dropping nearly 5% after the Finance Ministry announced it was boosting hard currency purchases under the fi...