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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Jan 30 -
Brazil Economics databank Jan 20
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Central America databank Jan 29
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Chile databank Jan 23
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Dec 19
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Dominican Republic databank Jan 27
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Ecuador databank Jan 21
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Gulf Countries databank Jan 30
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Hungary databank Jan 23
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Jan 15
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Panama databank Nov 12
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Peru databank Jan 30
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Philippines databank Jan 8
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Poland databank Nov 3
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Russia Economics databank Jan 16
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South Africa databank Jan 6
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Turkey databank Dec 24
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Ukraine databank Nov 10
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Venezuela databank Jan 7
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - PERU IN 2026: POLITICAL RISKS, ELECTIONS, AND ECONOM...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
The Most Serene Committee
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Feb 2026
The minutes of the last Copom meeting brought relatively few novelties compared to the Statement released last week, but, taken as a whole, they reinforce our conviction that the most likely scenario for monetary policy involves the beginning of the monetary easing cycle with a 0.50 p.p. cut at t...
EU finally prohibited gas imports from Russia, Hungary sues at the European Court
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Feb 2026
The EU regulation to prohibit the imports of natural gas from Russia was finally published in the EU's official gazette on January 26, after being approved by the European Parliament in early December and by the EU Council at a later date. This regulation does not prohibit the imports of Russian ...
The House approved the People’s Gas Provisional Measure, the Executive Branch outlined its legislative priorities for the year, and the Supreme Court also outlined its priorities for the year
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Feb 2026
Yesterday, the House approved the People’s Gas Provisional Measure. Considered an important initiative for the government, Provisional Measure No. 1,313/25 establishes the People’s Gas Program, aimed at expanding access to cooking gas in Brazil. In its message to Congress, the Executive Branch al...
Inflation: a challenging start to 2026
TURKEY · Report · 03 Feb 2026
Consumer prices rose by a higher than expected 4.8%, m/m, in January, with the 12-month CPI rate therefore easing only slightly to 30.7% from 30.9% in December, while producer prices rose by 2.7% (January 2025: 3.1%, m/m) with the 12-month rate easing to 27.2% from 27.7% in December. The key driv...
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, February 3, 2026
ISRAEL · Report · 03 Feb 2026
Recent data point to a clearer improvement in Israel’s macroeconomic fundamentals toward year-end 2025, supported by a rebound in activity, strong high-tech exports, and easing inflationary pressures. The recent upgrade in Israel’s credit outlook will reinforce confidence in the macro-fiscal envi...
A window of opportunity
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Feb 2026
Venezuela is entering a phase of political redefinition following the violent outcome of January 3, 2026. Delcy Rodríguez, now interim president under the tutelage of the Trump administration, has laid out a three-stage plan: stabilization, reconstruction (and reconciliation), and democratic tran...
The energy ceasefire did not last long
UKRAINE · In Brief · 03 Feb 2026
Predictably, the energy ceasefire did not hold even for a week. Last night, Russia carried out another large-scale strike on energy infrastructure, using hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles. In fact, Russia usually needs about a week to prepare for a massive air attack, and this pause—while...
Economics: Q4 2025 GDP grew 1.4% YoY, resulting in weak full-year growth of 0.5%
MEXICO · Report · 02 Feb 2026
According to figures from INEGI, GDP for Q4 2025 increased by 1.6% YoY seasonally adjusted, showing a rebound compared to the previous quarter, when it fell -0.2%. This performance resulted in a total increase of 0.5% for 2025. The secondary sector experienced weak growth in Q4 (0.3%) but is i...
Israel enters 2026 with lower financing needs, despite higher bond issuance in February
ISRAEL · In Brief · 02 Feb 2026
The government’s monthly issuance plan for February 2026 is to raise NIS 12.0 billion in tradable bonds on the local capital market in four weekly tenders, averaging NIS 3 billion per week. This represents a slightly higher pace than in recent months. In 2025, average monthly issuance stood at ar...
Trio of presidential hopefuls empowers the PSD and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Feb 2026
The National Congress and the Judiciary are resuming their activities. President Lula is expected to sign the Mercosur–European Union agreement proposal and send it to Congress. In the Lower House, attention is focused on the vote on the Gas Provisional Measure. In the Senate, the INSS Joint Parl...
Costa Rica elects a woman president for the second time: Laura Fernández wins the presidential election
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 02 Feb 2026
Costa Rica has elected a woman as president for the second time in its history. Laura Fernández secured a victory in the presidential election, former Minister of the Presidency under the administration of Rodrigo Chaves, won the race in the first round after surpassing the 40% threshold required...
Politics: Some of Mexico's important vulnerabilities vis-à-vis the Trump Administration
MEXICO · Report · 02 Feb 2026
Facing the review and possible renegotiation of the USMCA in 2026, Mexico has some shielding against extreme tariff measures due to its deep integration with North American value chains, but its negotiating capacity is severely undermined by a set of internal economic and structural vulnerabiliti...
CIS Essential Politics: January 16 - Feb 1, 2026
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Feb 2026
- Russia, Ukraine and the US in Abu Dhabi to negotiate peace. - Ukraine and Moldova experience nationwide blackouts amidst Russian strikes. - Moldova leaves the CIS. - Kazakhstan plans major constitutional reforms. - Uzbekistan plans its first-ever census.
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Feb 2026
RISKS: WITHOUT A COMPASS, AT THE MERCY OF WINDS AND MOODS The construction of a solid institutional framework has been one of the pillars of civilization. Faced with the inevitability of uncertainty, human beings built rules to reduce it, restricting the possible choices in each situation. If ...
A new Turkey story: under construction
TURKEY · Report · 02 Feb 2026
Legendary and immortal Market Guru, the Cosmic Strategist (myself) decided to make an unsolicited return from His self-imposed retirement, to herald loudly that Turkey is building a new and very positive story based on four pillars, almost none of which the Cosmic Strategist believes are priced i...