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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Mar 13
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Brazil Economics databank Mar 16
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Central America databank Feb 27
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Chile databank Feb 18
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Mar 4
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Dominican Republic databank Feb 26
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Ecuador databank Feb 20
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Gulf Countries databank Mar 13
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Hungary databank Feb 18
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Mar 11
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Panama databank Mar 6
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Peru databank Feb 27
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Philippines databank Mar 9
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Poland databank Feb 19
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Russia Economics databank Feb 13
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South Africa databank Mar 4
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Turkey databank Dec 24
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Ukraine databank Mar 9
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Venezuela databank Mar 5
NEWS FLASH
LIVE WEBINAR TODAY - OIL MARKETS 2026+: GEOPOLITICAL RISKS AND SUPPLY D...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Strong Q4 balance of payments supports the shekel
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Mar 2026
Israel’s external accounts strengthened in Q4 2025. The current account surplus rose sharply to $3.4 billion, following two relatively weak quarters (around $0.6 billion each). The key driver from an FX perspective, the goods and services balance, improved significantly, with the surplus widening...
Still no space for a third-way candidate and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Mar 2026
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad is expected to leave the ministry to run for governor of São Paulo in October. The Central Bank will decide the benchmark interest rate. A session in Congress is scheduled to promulgate the Mercosur–European Union agreement. The Supreme Federal Court (STF) will be...
Kazakhstan macro: “Never cared for games they play”
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 16 Mar 2026
On March 3, the National Bank of Kazakhstan decided to keep the base rate unchanged but hinted that it could decline in 2H26. The regulator mentioned that inflationary pressure is easing and referred to decelerating y-o-y inflation (11.7% in February versus 12.2% in January). The NBK pointed to s...
A Turning Point
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 16 Mar 2026
The events of January 3, 2026 have served as a positive shock. The prospect of higher oil revenues and the gradual easing of sanctions temporarily stabilized the exchange-rate market and revived investor interest in oil, gas, and mining. That stabilizing effect is now fading. The foreign-exchange...
Essential CIS Politics: March 2-16, 2026
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 16 Mar 2026
- Russia provides data and assistance to Iran in targeting American bases. - Motjaba Khamenei reportedly being treated in Moscow. - US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil. - Russia provokes internet blackouts in preparation for increased censorship, and possibly, a new p...
The Iran War—good or bad for China?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 16 Mar 2026
The U.S.-Iran war underscores both geopolitical weakness and strength for China. While the war exacerbates China’s already large domestic economic problems, with rising energy prices, potential inflation, and trade disruption, the United States’ weakness, chaotic policymaking, and military advent...
Hangover
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Mar 2026 · 1 response
Although we expect a monetary easing cycle in 2026, the economic slowdown that became evident in the second half of last year is still likely to manifest itself this year. In particular, economic growth should decelerate relative to 2025, although the nature of the deceleration will be somewhat d...
Haddad is expected to step down this week to run for Governor of São Paulo, the Central Bank should decide on the benchmark interest rate, and Motta will meet with party leaders to discuss the week’s legislative agenda
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Mar 2026
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad (PT) is expected to step down from his post this week. On Thursday (Mar. 19), he is scheduled to present a review of his tenure during an event in São Paulo alongside President Lula. Haddad will run for governor of São Paulo. The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Com...
Implications of the war in Iran
INDIA · Report · 16 Mar 2026
Indian macroeconomics is facing a multi-faceted external shock, one that requires a large adjustment of the general equilibrium. There is broad agreement on the core vulnerabilities: net reliance on imported hydrocarbons, exposure to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) export markets, and the integrit...
Upcoming Webinar - Oil Markets 2026+: Geopolitical Risks and Supply Dynamics Beyond the Glut
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Mar 2026
Date: 17 Mar 2026 Time: 8:00 AM Eastern Time As geopolitics overshadow supply in Venezuela, Iran, Russia and Kazakhstan, OPEC+ looks towards its second decade amidst an oil glut. What key local developments should market participants focus on to make sense of the oil market outlook in 2026 a...
Israel inflation still contained in February, but higher oil prices may push CPI up in coming months
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Mar 2026
Israel’s February CPI rose by 0.2%, slightly above expectations, bringing annual inflation to 2.0%, up from 1.8% in January. Overall, the data suggest that inflation pressures remained relatively contained prior to the outbreak of the war at the end of February. Seasonal factors had only a limite...
Politics: Morena prepares for 2027 with strategies aimed at gaining an advantage over the opposition
MEXICO · Report · 16 Mar 2026
Morena is moving aggressively to prepare for the 2027 elections. During its National Political Council on March 7, the party approved an accelerated calendar and rules for selecting candidates for the 17 governorships at stake, while simultaneously strengthening its territorial structure. By laun...
Economics: Pemex posts mixed results for 2025, facing big challenges ahead
MEXICO · Report · 16 Mar 2026
At the end of last month, Pemex released its operating and financial results for the close of 2025. The report was presented under the company’s new legal status as a “public company” — previously known as a “state productive enterprise” — and within the framework of the reforms and new legislati...
The current account shows an improved external position in a volatile global environment
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 16 Mar 2026
Data released by the South African Reserve Bank indicates that the South African current account balance recorded a surplus for the first time since Q3-2023, as it switched from a deficit of R72 billion in the third quarter of 2025 to a surplus of R50.2 billion in the fourth quarter. As a ratio o...
Iran War Days 15–16: US strikes Kharg and Iran widens GCC targeting
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 16 Mar 2026
HighlightsThe US struck military targets on Kharg Island, Iran’s oil export hub. Iran said if the oil facilities were attacked, then it would target the regional oil facilities of US-allied companies; it also threatened UAE ports and residential locations in Qatar and Dubai, where it claimed US m...