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Beijing tries again
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Nov 2024

Beijing has once again—after several earlier attempts—tried to strengthen the economy through a stimulus package. This package, at 10 trillion yuan, is larger than previous attempts but is unlikely to achieve the desired turnaround in the economy to halt the decline in property sales and the rise...

No base rate cut in November either, unsurprisingly
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Nov 2024

The Monetary Council left the MNB base rate unchanged at 6.5% at the monthly rate-setting meeting held today. As vice governor Virág said after the meeting, there was one member who proposed a 25 bps rate cut, but that was voted down by an overwhelming majority of decision-makers. This result was...

The Senate voted on the new rules for the parliamentary fund transfers, the House approved the bill on the Brazilian Payment System, and discussions on Tax Reform are ongoing
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Nov 2024

The Senate concluded yesterday the vote on the complementary bill that defines new rules for parliamentary fund transfers. The text will now have to go through further analysis in the Lower House. Yesterday, the House approved a bill redefining the rules for the operation, supervision, and risk m...

Upcoming webinar - Brazil political landscape and outlook
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Nov 2024

What are the consequences of the explosion at the Brazilian Supreme Court? How will Haddad’s battle for spending cuts play out? What can be expected from the upcoming legislative and political agenda? Join us for our live Zoom Webinar featuring GlobalSource Partners' Brazil Political Analyst L...

Economics: High risk of tariffs and trade sanctions generates investment uncertainty
MEXICO · Report · 19 Nov 2024

The victory of Donald Trump, together with the Republican majority in both houses of the U.S. Congress, indicates that it is practically a given that there will be pressure to threaten to impose tariffs on Mexico. The aim would be to force the Mexican government to toughen measures to prevent the...

Politics: The challenges facing the new PAN leadership
MEXICO · Report · 18 Nov 2024

On Sunday, November 11, the PAN, Mexico’s main opposition party, renewed its leadership, with its newly elected president, Jorge Romero, promising a thoroughgoing reform. However, the obstacles are formidable, beginning with Romero’s very diminished credibility. His reputation has been tarnished ...

Fiscal measures under review and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Nov 2024

The government is finally expected to announce fiscal adjustment measures between Thursday and Friday, November 21 and 22. President Lula will attend the G20 meeting in Rio de Janeiro on Monday and Tuesday, November 18 and 19. On Wednesday, November 20, Xi Jinping will pay an official visit to Br...

No Relief
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Nov 2024

Economic activity in the third quarter remained robust, although less dynamic compared to the first half of the year. Our forecasts puts GDP growth close to 0.8% in the third quarter, once again above potential. Consequently, and aligned with a continuously declining unemployment rate, we expect ...

How will a contraction in China’s trade surplus affect the economy?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Nov 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: - As always, October data was mixed. While consumption growth may be picking up, it is still not enough to keep pace with slowing growth in production. The result was more CPI deflation and one of the biggest monthly trade surpluses in history. ...

Permission for limited long-range missile strikes vs. global security breakdown
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Nov 2024

On Sunday morning, November 17, we received an alert that nearly 17 Russian strategic bombers were in the air preparing to launch dozens of cruise missiles. Such a big number of strategic bombers approaching launch sites usually means that hypersonic ballistic missile Kynzhal carriers Mig-31 will...

Lula will participate in the G20 meeting in Rio, he is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday, and the market awaits the announcements of the fiscal measures
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Nov 2024

President Lula will participate this Monday and Tuesday in the G20 meeting in Rio de Janeiro. On Wednesday, November 20, he is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Brasília. In the market, all eyes are on the announcement of measures related to the fiscal adjustment package. Some...

Inflation remains elevated but likely to moderate in 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Nov 2024

1. Core inflation pushed higher in October due to higher airfares, a volatile item. 2. We view the fiscal package for 2025 as restrictive and likely to dampen household demand. 3. We expect inflation to moderate in 2025, supportive of monetary easing.

Time will tell
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Nov 2024

Trump's view of the world is the same as it was during the years of his first presidency. He also maintains his assertively unilateralist and transactional approach to foreign policy. Venezuela is not high on his international agenda. It enters it tangentially because of the deportation of mig...

Inflation pressures likely to subside in 2025, supporting rate cuts
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Nov 2024

Geopolitics: A ceasefire in North still appears likely, but may have to wait for Trump. The ground operation on both fronts is winding down, although missiles and drones continue to land in the extended North of Israel resulting in some damage and casualties. The imminent threat from a ballistic ...

Back in the twilight zone of Turkish politics
TURKEY · Report · 17 Nov 2024 · 1 response

Turkish politics entered the Twilight Zone once again, where the unthinkable quickly becomes the norm. The politics essays start with reports of President Erdogan planning to send the military to Syria once again, to deal the final blow to the reigning Kurdish military-political entity PYD/YPG. W...

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