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Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Apr 2026

SURPRISES IN THE ELECTORAL LANDSCAPE AND THE SUPREME COURT UNDER SCRUTINY The deadline for officeholders to step down from their positions and of the party-switching window accelerated the definition of presidential candidacies for the October election, bringing a new development with the pote...

Peru: Fujimori and Alvarez lead in the polls
PERU · In Brief · 06 Apr 2026

Last night pollsters released their latest poll and Keiko Fujimori from Fuerza Popular kept their lead in most polls. Surprising was the run of Carlos Álvarez from Pais para todos, a well known right-wing comedian and he overtook Rafael López Aliaga from Renovation Popular as the second runner.  ...

Lula is expected to issue a subsidy for imported diesel, the Executive Office may submit a bill on the 6x1 work schedule, and the Organized Crime CPI may hear from Galipolo and Campos Neto
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Apr 2026

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) is expected this week to issue a provisional measure creating a subsidy for imported diesel in an effort to mitigate price increases amid the conflict between the United States and Iran. The Executive Branch may also send Congress a bill proposing the elim...

China rebalancing and the Iran War
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 06 Apr 2026

China’s official policy statements stress the importance of rebalancing the economy from industry to consumption—a point stressed by most foreign economists as a key transition. During the 15th Five-Year Plan meeting in March, Premier Li Qiang urged that "industrial upgrading should be driven by ...

Macroeconomic adjustments to the energy shock: the exchange rate and the bond market
INDIA · Report · 06 Apr 2026

The macroeconomic adjustment to the 2026 energy price shock has been complicated by the authorities’ preference for a heavily managed exchange rate. Following the geopolitical escalation involving Iran, India’s terms of trade have suffered, dictating a textbook real depreciation. While the USD/IN...

Past week review and week ahead: macroeconomic and geopolitical developments - Weekly report, April 6, 2026
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Apr 2026

Last week was short due to the Passover holiday, with the main focus on the Bank of Israel's decision to keep rates unchanged at 4.0%. The rate announcement maintains a somewhat hawkish tone due to war and inflation risks. BoI growth forecasts for 2026 were revised down to around 3.8%, although a...

The year of our regression
TURKEY · Report · 05 Apr 2026

The year 2026 is likely to go down in the annals of history as “the Year of Our Regression”, when the Iran War first halted and then began to reverse all progress made in healing the wounds of the Covid-19 pandemic. The war is unlikely to end before June or thereabouts, the politics author believ...

GULF WEEKLY: Smelters and tankers struck, Fitch puts Qatar and RAK on RWN, Qatar and Dubai stimulus packages
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Apr 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Hopes for peace talks receded, and Trump's statements imply escalation, then unilateral withdrawal. * Attacks on the GCC included Bahrain and UAE aluminum plants, UAE gas, a refinery and power plants in Kuwait and oil tank...

Better than expected headline, tough road ahead
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2026

Consumer prices rose by a somewhat lower than expected 1.9% in March, with the 12-month rate declining to just under 31%, from 31.5% in February. Monthly PPI inflation was 2.3% in March, leading to a modest increase in the 12-month PPI rate to 28.1%, up from 27.6% in the previous month. Benign fo...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Apr 2026

Volatility on the FX market increased dramatically in the past two weeks (10-day volatility jumped from 6-8% month ago to over 20% as of now). On the back of strong oil prices, investors anticipated Minfin to start purchasing FX on the open market in April, which could cause its deficit as export...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Dancing on a fault line-Armenia heads to the polls
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 02 Apr 2026

With two months to election day, three key opposition centers of gravity have formed that stand reasonable chances of making it through the National Assembly, although, by law, April 23 marks the final day when blocks and coalition may be formally announced. In this piece, I first briefly out...

Jorge Messia’s nomination to the STF was finally submitted to the Senate, Senator Pacheco formally joined the PSB, and Rogério Ceron stated that the provisional measure on a diesel subsidy should be published by next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Apr 2026

Yesterday, the nomination of Jorge Messias to the Supreme Federal Court (STF) was finally submitted to the Senate. The nomination will be reviewed by the Senate’s Constitution and Justice Committee before being voted on by the full chamber. Also yesterday, Senator Rodrigo Pacheco formally joined ...

Voting preferences shifted in Tisza's favour in March
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Apr 2026

Following a relatively long intermission, voting preferences measured in opinion polls appeared to shift again in March, the result being an increasing lead for Tisza against Fidesz. Eventually, five out of the seven leading pollsters - Idea, Median, Republikon, Závecz (ZRI) and 21 Kutató - publi...

Lula announced that Alckmin will remain his running mate for VP, 80% of Brazil’s states want a subsidy proposal for imported diesel, and Senator Rodrigo Pacheco will leave the PSD and formally join the PSB today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Apr 2026

Yesterday, during a ministerial meeting, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva confirmed that Geraldo Alckmin will remain his running mate for vice president. In recent weeks, there had been considerable speculation that Lula might offer the position to the MDB or PSD parties. The Ministry of Finan...

BCRD keeps its policy rate at 5.25% per year and projects economic growth between 3.5% and 4.0% in 2026
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 31 Mar 2026

In light of the increased global uncertainty associated with the escalation of the war in the Middle East, the Central Bank decided to keep the policy interest rate unchanged at 5.25% per year. The rate on the permanent liquidity expansion facility (1-day repos) remains at 5.75%, while the rate o...

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