BRAZIL POLITICS
Analysts
Murillo de Aragão
Founder, Political Consultancy Arko Advice
Cristiano Noronha
Partner, Political Consultancy Arko AdviceRecent Country Insights
Flávio Bolsonaro left Brazil for the U.S. with his wife and daughters, the Minister of Finance said the government is preparing a legislative change for the fiscal target, and Lula signaled support for Motta and Alcolumbre
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Oct 2026
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) left Brazil yesterday (Oct. 27) for the United States with his wife and daughters. He had until yesterday morning to surrender his passports, under an order issued by Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Alexandre de Moraes as part of an investigation into alleged ...
Lula met with the presidents of the Lower House and Senate, the PT’s priority in Congress is to approve the proposal on free transportation, and the PL issued a statement yesterday recognizing the result of the election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Oct 2026
President Lula (PT) met yesterday (Oct. 26) at the Alvorada Palace with Lower House President Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB) and Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP). It was the first meeting among the three since Lula’s reelection. On the legislative agenda, the PT’s priority is to approve ...
Street mobilization explains Lula's unprecedented comeback and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Oct 2026
With the presidential election decided, the Lula administration is beginning negotiations over the composition of the new government. In Congress, party leaders are resuming talks on pending issues, including the 2027 Federal Budget, the Public Security Constitutional Amendment, and other matters...
Lula was reelected to a fourth term, Flávio has not conceded defeat, and Congress is expected to resume voting on a backlog of pending measures
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Oct 2026
President Lula (PT) was reelected yesterday (Oct. 25) to a fourth term. According to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Lula won 51.79% of the valid votes, or 64.3 million votes, compared with 48.21% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), who received 59.8 million. Flávio has not conceded defeat. He...
Flávio Bolsonaro’s lead in the runoff has been narrowing, both campaigns signed a waiver at the TSE to disclose their confidential records, and the runoff will be held this Sunday, October 25
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Oct 2026
The three polls released yesterday (October 22) all point in the same direction: Flávio remains numerically ahead in every poll, but his lead has been narrowing, while Lula’s rejection rate has declined. This is an election that will be decided by the details: turnout, undecided voters, and perfo...
The latest polls continue to show Flávio Bolsonaro with a slight advantage, Lula invited Flávio to join him at the TSE today to disclose their confidential records, and Lula is using the presidency in his favor
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Oct 2026
A Quaest poll released yesterday (Oct. 21) shows a statistical tie with four days to go before the runoff. Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) has 45% of voting intentions, compared with 44% for Lula (PT). Two other polls released yesterday also show Flávio ahead. In the Gerp poll, he has 53% of valid votes, c...
Lula calls on Flávio Bolsonaro to disclose his confidential records, the Federal Police requested more time to investigate Lula’s son, and Lula is expected to sign into the law a bill forgiving debts of MEIs
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Oct 2026
President Lula sharpened his rhetoric in the final stretch of the campaign. Yesterday, Lula said that Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) should only be allowed to take part in the TV Globo debate if he presents a document authorizing the disclosure of his confidential records. The Federal Police (PF) asked th...
Polls show Flávio Bolsonaro has a slight advantage ahead of the runoff, activities in Congress will be limited this week, and the government will rely on executive action
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Oct 2026
Six days before the runoff, polls released yesterday (Oct. 19) show Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) ahead, although the race has tightened compared with the immediate aftermath of the first round. Flávio continues to hold a slight edge, but the election remains open. Rejection rates for both candidates are...
The final stretch and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Oct 2026
This is the final week of campaigning ahead of the runoff election on October 25. On Friday, October 23, TV Globo will host a debate featuring Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. A series of voting intention polls are expected to be released throughout the week. The Senate may vote on the constitutional a...