CENTRAL AMERICA
Analysts
Fernando Naranjo
Former Finance Minister
Felix Delgado
Former General Manager, Central BankDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Even if war ends soon, expect future negative economic impacts
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Jun 2026
Higher inflation and lower economic growth globally are the foreseeable international trends for this year, as a sequel to the Iran war. Those outlooks will hardly change before 2027, whether or not the Middle East conflict ends soon, because the direct and secondary effects on oil and other comm...
Middle East war effects come home to roost
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 May 2026
In Costa Rica, the Central Bank’s May 2026 Monetary Policy Report confirms a dual-speed economy. The special regime slowed in Q1 2026 as 2025’s front-loading of U.S.-bound orders faded, while the definitive regime remained weak, despite a construction-led lift from the electoral cycle. Manufactur...
Surprisingly resilient
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Apr 2026
El Salvador’s 2025 economic performance was better than expected, given global economic and geopolitical turbulence. The growth engines were both private and public investment, reflected in the extraordinary construction boom, and in foreign remittances that soared by almost 18% y/y. We also expe...
Growth engine losing power
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Mar 2026
Guatemala enters 2026–2027 with strong macroeconomic fundamentals, but moderating growth momentum. In 2025, GDP expanded by 4.1%, supported by resilient domestic demand, strong remittances ($25.5 billion), improved investment (particularly in construction) and strong services performance. But con...
Short-term strength – but watch out for challenge ahead
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Feb 2026
Costa Rica’s February 1 elections showed that voters favored continuity, as Laura Fernández, presidential candidate of the party aligned with President Rodrigo Chaves, won the race. The implications for the economic outlook will be analyzed in these and subsequent reports. The complexity of turbu...
Costa Rica elects a woman president for the second time: Laura Fernández wins the presidential election
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 02 Feb 2026
Costa Rica has elected a woman as president for the second time in its history. Laura Fernández secured a victory in the presidential election, former Minister of the Presidency under the administration of Rodrigo Chaves, won the race in the first round after surpassing the 40% threshold required...
Costa Rican presidency still a toss-up
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Jan 2026
Costa Rica approaches its February 1 presidential election with a tight and uncertain race, marked by high voter volatility and a fragmented political landscape. Polls place incumbent party candidate Laura Fernández at close to the 40% threshold required for a first-round victory, but the large s...
Rising security risks in Guatemala
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 19 Jan 2026
By Fernando Naranjo and Félix Delgado Guatemala is facing a period of heightened security stress with significant institutional and economic implications. Over the past weekend, inmates seized control of three prisons while gang members carried out coordinated attacks that resulted in the murder...
Surprisingly robust, as remittances lead the way
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 19 Dec 2025
With Costa Rica less than two months away from the February 1 presidential and congressional elections, government candidate Laura Fernández continues to lead in the polls. But given the high proportion of undecided voters, it is still unclear whether the election will be decided in the first rou...