GULF COUNTRIES
Analyst
Justin Alexander
Former Economic Advisor, Qatar Finance MinistryDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
GULF WEEKLY: Qatar mediates a Gaza ceasefire, Saudi’s Maaden plans bonds, Kuwait confirms sin tax, Gulf states re-engage with Lebanon
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Jan 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent oil touched a five-month high following substantive US sanctions on Russian oil tankers. * OPEC and the IEA still diverge on oil demand forecasts and by 0.6m b/d on the 2024 outturn. * Following the signing of its C...
GULF WEEKLY: Oil touches 3-month high, KSA issues $12bn bonds, Bahrain’s non-oil GDP rebounds but oil output is weak, Lebanon elects a president
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Jan 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil briefly rose above $80, a three-month high, on cold weather and sanctions concerns. * Regional PMIs ended the year strongly, particularly in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. * KSA issued $12bn in bonds, albeit short-dated, 7...
GULF WEEKLY: Oman achieves 2024 fiscal surplus, KSA's current account falls into deficit, and Q3 non-oil GDP accelerates in Qatar and Abu Dhabi but contracts in Kuwait
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Jan 2025 · 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude has rebounded to $76, the highest since October, on hopes of stimulus. * Qatar, Kuwait and Oman all announced plans for 15% top-up taxes on large multinationals. * The Saudi current account fell into deficit i...
GULF WEEKLY: Fitch turns positive on Oman, CI upgrades KSA, Gulf states cut interest rates, Dubai awards metro expansion
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Dec 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf states mainly cut rates by -25bp, but Kuwait held steady, and Qatar cut by an extra -5bp. * An IMF policy report for the GCC recommended fiscal consolidation and structural reforms. * GCC debt capital markets crossed...
GULF WEEKLY: Saudi World Cup, UAE to tax multinationals 15%, Oman may postpone income tax, Saudi and Qatar GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Dec 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC again reduced its 2024-25 oil demand forecasts, which are still far higher than the IEA. * The UAE has reportedly sharply cut oil allocations for Q1, possibly to comply with its quota. * Britain's PM visited UAE and ...
Syria post-Assad: outlook and implications for the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Dec 2024 · 1 response
* While there is plenty to worry about, Syrians are celebrating the end of a brutal regime. * HTS has become the dominant force in much of Syria, but the balance with other groups is unclear. * HTS made encouraging pronouncements, including about minorities, women and non-retribution. * The gr...
GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ slows its taper, PMIs surge in KSA and Kuwait, Syrian rebels capture Aleppo and Hama
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Dec 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ reduced 2025 taper plans by 1m b/d and extended cuts into 2026, but the market shrugged. * Participating GCC states will increase output in 2025 by a third of what was previously planned. * Gulf leaders met in Kuwai...
GULF WEEKLY: Saudi budget, KSA and RAK upgraded, UAE Q2 GDP, Lebanon ceasefire
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Nov 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The OPEC+ meeting was postponed until Thursday, suggesting differences on tapering cuts. * Trump’s Treasury Secretary pick was well received by markets, but wants to hike oil by 3m b/d. * The Saudi budget sees tax revenue...
SAUDI ARABIA: Moody’s upgrades back to Aa3 and above Kuwait
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Nov 2024
Moody's upgraded Saudi Arabia to Aa3 due to progress in economic diversification and a track record of good fiscal governance. This is its highest rating since 2016 and, for the first time, it is rated more highly than Kuwait, despite much weaker per citizen wealth metrics.