GULF COUNTRIES
Analyst
Justin Alexander
Former Economic Advisor, Qatar Finance MinistryDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ affirms taper, Aramco cuts dividends, UAE fiscal surplus, Bahraini budget considers tax hikes
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Mar 2025 · 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude touched a 4-year low of $68 on OPEC+ taper and Trump tariffs. * Kazakhstan recommitted to overproduction compensation; Iraq failed to restart northern exports. * PMIs mainly eased but remained strong in UAE an...
GULF WEEKLY: Fitch negative outlook on Bahrain, Saudi issues bonds, Gaza's ceasefire deadline looms
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Feb 2025 · 2 responses
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent oil dipped to $72, the lowest this year, on weak economic data. * The US imposed new sanctions on Iran’s exports and ended a waiver for Chevron in Venezuela. * Moody’s added a positive outlook for Oman’s banking but...
GULF WEEKLY: Saudi hosts US-Russia talks and Trump at FII Miami, Qatar issues $3bn bonds and will graduate from the EMBI, HSBC exits Bahrain
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Feb 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The first 2.5km section of The Line is planned to have 60 times the area of the Burj Khalifa and 200k residents. * New forecasts for the Saudi deficit this year include -2.7% of GDP (SNB) and -3.8% (Fitch). * Saudi Arabia...
GULF WEEKLY: US tariffs threaten aluminum exporters, Saudi deficit is as expected, Kuwait plans bonds, Lebanon forms cabinet
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Feb 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Trump’s 25% tariff on aluminum will hurt Gulf exporters. They are already subject to 25% on steel. * The GCC states are unlikely to be priority targets for Trump’s mooted “reciprocal” tariffs. * As Trump engages with Russ...
GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait budgets a large deficit, Saudi PMI soars, Sharjah issues bond, GCC opposes Trump’s Gaza plan
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Feb 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped for a third week despite Trump’s return to maximum pressure on Iran. * Saudi Arabia’s PMI surged to 60.5, the strongest in a decade. There were dips in other Gulf states. * Fitch puts the Saudi fiscal breakeven...
GULF WEEKLY: Strong Q4 Saudi GDP, Dubai-AD rail link, Oman income tax debated, Trump proposes Gaza relocation
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 31 Jan 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil prices declined for a second week, but the premium of Gulf crude over Brent is at a record $2. * Rystad forecasts the share of renewables in GCC electricity to surge from 3% to 70% by 2050. * The Saudi Q4 flash GDP re...
GULF WEEKLY: Trump demands a lower oil price and Saudi cash, MGX invests in US AI infrastructure, Oman Article IV published
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Jan 2025 · 2 responses
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf delegations were highly visible at Davos, on panels and in their national pavilions. * Trump demanded at Davos that OPEC reduce oil prices, saying this would end the war in Ukraine. * Pending IPOs include Derayah and...
GULF WEEKLY: Qatar mediates a Gaza ceasefire, Saudi’s Maaden plans bonds, Kuwait confirms sin tax, Gulf states re-engage with Lebanon
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Jan 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent oil touched a five-month high following substantive US sanctions on Russian oil tankers. * OPEC and the IEA still diverge on oil demand forecasts and by 0.6m b/d on the 2024 outturn. * Following the signing of its C...
GULF WEEKLY: Oil touches 3-month high, KSA issues $12bn bonds, Bahrain’s non-oil GDP rebounds but oil output is weak, Lebanon elects a president
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Jan 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil briefly rose above $80, a three-month high, on cold weather and sanctions concerns. * Regional PMIs ended the year strongly, particularly in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. * KSA issued $12bn in bonds, albeit short-dated, 7...