HUNGARY
Analyst
Istvan Racz
Former Director, Central BankDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
September CPI moderately below expectation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Oct 2026 · 1 response
As reported yesterday, the median analyst expectation for September headline CPI-inflation was 1.8% yoy, up from 1.3% in the previous month. But the actual figure was 0.2% mom, 1.6% yoy only. Fuel prices indeed rose 5.9% mom, maybe a bit less than expected, but non-fuel inflation was actually -0....
Three new data reports (industry, retail sales, budget) and one data preview (CPI)
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Oct 2026
Well, this is more good than bad, but not entirely good, we would say. 1. Industrial output grew 1% mom, 8.7% yoy in August. This looks quite impressive on the fixed-base chart (Dec 2010 = 100) below, though it still does not reflect a broad-based upswing of industrial activity. The upturn was co...
Retail margin caps may be lifted quite soon
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Oct 2026 · 1 response
Two days ago, PM Magyar visited the economically less prosperous north-eastern region of Hungary, on the occasion that the newly established National Asset Recovery and Protection Agency (NVVH) previously took into custody a former economy minister of the Fidesz government in the 2010s, not long ...
A brief comment on recent MNB talk
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Sep 2026
Last Tuesday (September 22), the Monetary Council halted its three-month long loosening 'mini-cycle', raised its inflation forecast for the next five quarters and reduced its medium-term inflation target to 2.5% from 3%, although the latter only from January 2028 (which matters very little in pra...
MNB will indeed lower its inflation target, but only from January 2028
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Sep 2026
There has not been too much surprise heard from today's Monetary Council meeting. The base rate was indeed held at 5.5%, and the inflation target is indeed set to go lower, to 2.5%, just as Bloomberg predicted already a few weeks ago. Somewhat surprisingly though, Governor Varga said after the me...
Anti-corruption efforts shifted to a higher gear
HUNGARY · In Brief · 18 Sep 2026
The draft budget for 2027 will be presented to the Fiscal Council, from which point it can be regarded as publicly known, on October 17, PM Magyar said today. For the average citizen, that plan will include good news and bad news alike, but possibly more bad than good, given the conflict between ...
Important government and MNB decisions are coming: one step closer to euro-convergence?
HUNGARY · Report · 15 Sep 2026
An introductory period for the Tisza government ended in August. The three most important Fidesz-appointed top public officials, who represented a permanent threat to government activities, have been replaced, and conditions for EU funding have also been met, opening the way to the overwhelming m...
August CPI and budget numbers require a close look from analysts
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Sep 2026
We have just received the August CPI-inflation data, which looks kind of all right at first glance, but is not at all very good after all, and the August cash budget figures, which look ugly, while being quite favourable after a closer look. So, the 0.2% mom, 1.3% yoy August CPI-inflation data lo...
Industry and retail sales continued to strengthen in July
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Sep 2026
Industrial output grew by 1.7% mom, 4.5% yoy in July, following 3.5% yoy growth in Q2 and 1% yoy expansion in Q1. The fixed-base chart (Dec 2010 = 100; source: KSH) clearly shows an appreciably stable trend of material strengthening since the start of this year: Even more strength could be seen i...