HUNGARY
Analyst
Istvan Racz
Former Director, Central BankDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Strong-forint policy has become more accentuated
HUNGARY · Report · 11 Sep 2025
The authorities’ desire to reduce inflation before the election has become more evident than at any time previously. The government cabinet has decided to extend the existing caps on retail margins, and the Economy Minister has hinted at a postponement of an excise tax increase originally planned...
Russian drones in NATO airspace: Hungary unaffected, PM Orbán has taken side with Poland
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Sep 2025
The violation of Polish airspace by more than a dozen Russian drones (all of which have been intercepted by US and Polish airplanes) during the night did not affect Hungary (see the chart below).PM Orbán has issued a brief statement in the morning: 'Hungary expresses its full solidarity with Pola...
August CPI data marks no change in inflation prospects
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Sep 2025
The headline rate was 0% mom, 4.3% yoy, the latter unchanged from the previous month. Core inflation moved a bit down, to 3.9% yoy from July's 4% yoy, whereas non-fuel inflation rose a bit, to 5% yoy in August from 4.9% yoy in the previous month. Note: Yoy changes in percent, data right of the ve...
An unusual development: strengthening industrial output and weakening retail sales in July
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Sep 2025
In recent months, this typically went the other way round. But anyway, the facts are the following: Industrial output grew by 2% mom in July, reducing the yoy decrease to 1.6% in that month, after a 3.6% yoy decrease in Q2. The fixed-base chart (Dec 2010 = 100; source: KSH) looked like this: So, ...
There seems to be peace and fundamental agreement between the Economy Minister and the MNB Governor
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Sep 2025
This is something we have not seen for a long time, and especially not in the last almost two years of Mr. Matolcsy's period at the MNB. The domestic event of the week is the regular annual gathering of the Hungarian Economic Association, a high-profile conference where both Minister Nagy and Gov...
Mr. Nagy on fiscal policy and rating agencies in the election period
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Sep 2025
Following a brief episode of successful heart surgery during the summer, Economy Minister Márton Nagy is now back in office and is fully operative. In the past few days, he paid a visit to London, primarily to talk to credit rating agencies, as he has just informed the public. Returning from that...
Business as usual: no policy change at today's monthly Monetary Council meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Aug 2025
The MNB base rate and the interest rate corridor have been kept unchanged, at 6.5% and 5.5-7.5%, respectively, and the Council saw no reason to change its forward guidance either. This outcome was in conformity with the MNB's previous communication and analyst expectations alike. In Portfolio.hu'...
Confirming the obvious: price caps will be extended beyond end-August
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Aug 2025
We had this coming from the first instance. PM Orbán has just announced that the government's administrative caps on the gross retail margins of certain food items and household goods will be upheld after August 31, when, in the legal sense at least, those measures were set to expire. He did not ...
An update on the Druzhba oil pipeline
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Aug 2025
During the night of August 22, the Unecha pumping station in the Bryansk region of Russia was hit by Ukrainian UAV drones, causing the whole station to go up in flames, as everyone can check by seeing the video published by the Ukrainian military. This was the fourth attack against the Druzhba oi...