KAZAKHSTAN
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
NBK holds its base rate unchanged
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Jan 2025
The National Bank of Kazakhstan announced today that it decided to keep the base rate at 17.25%, quoting the usual symptoms, such as rising inflationary pressures, some signs of domestic demand overheating, and the lack of spare production capacities. Inflation in Kazakhstan remained at 0.9% m-o-...
Economic activity reportedly soared in December, albeit quite unexpectedly
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Jan 2025
The Bureau of National Statistics announced that in 2024, the short-term indicator (that takes into account activity in industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation, and communications) soared to 6.2%. In 11M24, it was up by 5.6%, implying a rapid acceleration in December alone. Mea...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 10 Jan 2025
Dec 26 NBK: The regulator has approved a 5-year strategy for digitalization of the financial market regulation. Dec 28 President: Mr. Tokayev and the Russian President Mr. Putin had a telephone conversation and discussed the situation around the crash of an Azerbaijani plane near Aktau. Jan 3 Pre...
Kazakhstan macro: Fiscal Year 2025 may still be challenging despite the weaker tenge
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 Dec 2024
Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance recently published budget execution statistics for various segments of the budgetary system, including extra-budgetary funds and the National Fund incorporated in the consolidated budget. The fiscal trends that we have regularly covered didn’t change much, apart f...
BI-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 26 Dec 2024
Dec 11 National Welfare Fund: Samruk-Kazyna intends to postpone the IPO of the national gas company QazaqGaz (initially planned for 2025) to create more attractive conditions for investors. Agriculture production: The US Department of Agriculture has maintained its forecast for Kazakh wheat expor...
Kazakhstan macro: The tenge is searching for equilibrium but the journey is not over yet
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 19 Dec 2024
The Kazakh economy performed well in November, as the short-term indicator grew y-o-y by 5.6% in 11M24. Agriculture (up by 13.4%), construction (up by 10.3%), and retail sales (up by 9.3%) were the fastest-growing segments (all figures are y-o-y). Meanwhile, in November alone, retail sales increa...
Economic growth accelerated in November amid soaring government spending and credit growth
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Dec 2024
The Bureau of National Statistics started publishing November monthly statistics and suggested that economic growth accelerated on a y-o-y basis as the short-term indicator (a monthly measure of aggregate economic activity in industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation, and communi...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 12 Dec 2024
Nov 27 President: Kazakhstan remains a reliable strategic partner and ally of Russia. Budget: The Parliament of Kazakhstan approved the law "On the Republican Budget for 2025-2027". The 2025 budget deficit is set at 2.7% of GDP, with a decrease in 2026-2027 to 2.2% and 1.9% of GDP, respectively. ...
Policy choice and monetary expansion behind the tenge’s recent unintended (albeit healthy) correction
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 06 Dec 2024
Earlier this week, the Ministry of Finance published the 11M24 statistics on the National Fund’s revenue flow and expenditures. The ministry mentioned that since the beginning of the year, the fund’s assets grew from KZT29.854 trln as of January 1 to KZT33.261 trln as of December 1. It means that...