KAZAKHSTAN
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistEvents
Recent Country Insights
Kazakhstan macro: “Never cared for games they play”
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 16 Mar 2026
On March 3, the National Bank of Kazakhstan decided to keep the base rate unchanged but hinted that it could decline in 2H26. The regulator mentioned that inflationary pressure is easing and referred to decelerating y-o-y inflation (11.7% in February versus 12.2% in January). The NBK pointed to s...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 12 Mar 2026
Feb 26 National gas company: QazaqGaz and the Qatari UCC Holding have developed a project design for the construction of a second gas processing plant at Kashagan with an annual capacity of 2.5 bcm. EBRD: The bank upgraded Kazakhstan's 2026 GDP growth forecast from 4.5% to 4.7%. Tengizchevroil: O...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 26 Feb 2026
Feb 13 World Bank: The Bank is ready to provide financing up to $1bln per year for projects in Kazakhstan in 2026-2031. National railways: IPO of Kazakhstan Railways may take place in May. KMG: The company increased oil and gas condensate production by 10% in 2025. US Embassy: The US is working w...
Kazakhstan macro: Tax reform—January budget execution statistics signal caution
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 24 Feb 2026 · 1 response
The January budget execution statistics published last week sent mixed signals, suggesting that the outcome of tax reforms orchestrated by the Kazakh government remains muted. This doesn’t mean that the reform will be unsuccessful, but it could fall short of expectations. The key element of the t...
Kazakhstan macro: January 2026 statistics look underwhelming, as economic growth in 2025 may have been overstated
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 19 Feb 2026
The Bureau of National Statistics has released its preliminary 2025 quarterly GDP figures, and as usual, only y-o-y growth rates for cumulative periods within the year are available. As we have mentioned before, the initially published numbers have never been revised in the past, so the reported ...
Statistics brings more surprises and looks increasingly volatile
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Feb 2026
The Bureau of National Statistics confirmed earlier statements from authorities, announcing that GDP grew by 6.5% in 2025. While the Bureau describes this as a flash estimate, it’s almost certain to hold given the agency’s track record of never revising historical data. In nominal terms, GDP reac...
Economic statistics could look even more puzzling this year
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Feb 2026
The Bureau of National Statistics has begun releasing January data, and the first reports are as puzzling as ever. With m-o-m data missing for many time series and, in some cases, m-o-m and y-o-y figures showing growing discrepancies, it looks like we can expect more statistical mysteries this ye...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 11 Feb 2026
Jan 29 Government: The US Chevron promises to take measures to ensure reliable and safe operation of facilities in the Tengiz oil field. LUKOIL: Russian company has signed an agreement with US Carlyle on the sale of its foreign assets, excluding those which are based in Kazakhstan. Jan 30 Agency ...
Inflation remained elevated in January, the NBK held the base rate steady amid mounting uncertainty
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 04 Feb 2026
While the initial economic and financial figures for January don’t look too bad, growing uncertainty has led the National Bank to keep the base rate at 18%. The NBK thinks inflation expectations are still high and seems set on holding the base rate steady for about six months. Y-o-y inflation is ...