MEXICO
Analysts
Mauricio González
Former Director of Economic Policy, Finance Ministry
Guillermo Valdés
Former Director, Center of Investigation & National Security
Mariano Ruiz-Funes
Former Director of Financial Policy, Ministry of Finance
Francisco González
Economic Consultant, GEA Grupo de EconomistasDatabanks
Events
Recent Country Insights
Economics: Macroeconomic scenarios 2026-2030 and their political determinants
MEXICO · Report · 24 Aug 2026
We frame Mexico's macroeconomic outlook for 2026-2030 around four scenarios, the probabilities of which point to a predominantly adverse picture. The most likely scenario (50%) is the inertial one, in which government policy remains largely unchanged: the erosion of the rule of law — reflecte...
Politics: Implications of the U.S. visa revocation for AMLO's son
MEXICO · Report · 24 Aug 2026 · 1 response
The revocation of the U.S. visa of AMLO´s eldest son, known as “Andy”, was a low-cost, secretive, and unexplained administrative measure targeting a man with no formal government role that triggered a political crisis wildly disproportionate to the act itself, exposing deep fractures within Mexic...
Economics: Following the Q2 GDP rebound, a slowdown is expected in the second half of the year
MEXICO · Report · 18 Aug 2026
Second-quarter 2026 GDP growth surprised to the upside at 2.1% annually, but the strength came almost entirely from volatile or previously depressed components — mining, agriculture, residential construction, wholesale trade, and health services — that are unlikely to sustain their momentum throu...
Politics: Homicides declined in 2025, but the real numbers and the effectiveness of the government's strategy remain in question
MEXICO · Report · 17 Aug 2026
INEGI's preliminary 2025 homicide figures (27,989, a rate of 21.4 per 100,000 inhabitants) confirm a genuine decline in intentional homicides, but one considerably smaller than the government claims. A gap of over 4,300 cases separates INEGI's count from the SNSP's. The gap is rooted in divergent...
Politics: Freedom of expression is at risk under a new initiative
MEXICO · Report · 10 Aug 2026
Mexico's government is advancing Telecommunications Regulatory Commission (CRT) guidelines meant to regulate audience rights under Articles 6 and 7 of the Constitution and the 2025 Telecommunications Law, but the initiative has triggered sharp controversy. Critics argue the rules concentrate exce...
Economics: Mexico's public finances, Pemex and the CFE face mounting risks
MEXICO · Report · 10 Aug 2026
The first half of 2026 reveals a fiscal fragility that the federal government has tried to ignore, and even to portray as evidence that public finances are strengthening. The fiscal deficit barely narrowed, while the primary balance collapsed—evidence that a growing share of debt is being contrac...
Economics: July data reveal pockets of recovery but multiple vulnerabilities on the economic front
MEXICO · Report · 03 Aug 2026
Mexico's economy enters the second half of 2026 with a headline growth figure that overstates the strength of the underlying recovery. The second-quarter rebound rests heavily on volatile components—agriculture, mining, wholesale trade, and an unusually large jump in residential construction that...
Politics: 2027 electoral scenarios and their implications
MEXICO · Report · 03 Aug 2026
Morena enters the 2027 midterms as the dominant force. Its ceiling, however, is already visible: vote intention hovers between 39% and 47%, with another six to nine points from the PT and PVEM, and the realistic direction of the trend is downward. The party's assets — a consolidated social base, ...
Economics: Mazzucato's document for implementing Plan México is unviable in the context of the current Administration's policies
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jul 2026
Last week, what appears to be a preliminary version of the report "State Transformation for Plan Mexico" was made public, prepared by Mariana Mazzucato and Lara Merling of the Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose at University College London. In principle, this presentation is intended to ...