MEXICO
Analysts
Mauricio González
Former Director of Economic Policy, Finance Ministry
Guillermo Valdés
Former Director, Center of Investigation & National Security
Mariano Ruiz-Funes
Former Director of Financial Policy, Ministry of Finance
Francisco González
Economic Consultant, GEA Grupo de EconomistasDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Politics: Morena now has its gubernatorial candidates; their selection points to changes in the balance of power within the party
MEXICO · Report · 05 Oct 2026
Morena has completed the selection of its 17 gubernatorial candidates for 2027, and the process reveals much about the ruling party. Opinion polls, which are the formal selection method, remain opaque and manipulable: results were published late, the firms and methodologies were not disclosed, an...
Economics: September indicators—a fragile recovery and narrowing monetary and fiscal room
MEXICO · Report · 05 Oct 2026
September's indicators point to an economy recovering unevenly and exposed on several fronts. Private consumption remain soft, with consumer confidence stuck near historic lows and private investment held back by uncertainty around USMCA and the constitutional reforms recently approved in Mexico....
Economics: Banxico holds the reference rate at 6.5% after the Fed raises its rate range
MEXICO · Report · 29 Sep 2026
Banxico held its reference rate at 6.5% for a third consecutive meeting, once again unanimously, following a cutting cycle that we consider to have been accelerated and that now leaves the central bank with little room to maneuver. Core inflation, sustained by resilient services prices, eight yea...
Politics: Electoral process—Morena goes all in, and the INE backs it up
MEXICO · Report · 28 Sep 2026
Mexico's 2027 electoral process, which formally began on September 10, is shaping up as far more than a routine midterm contest over 500 federal deputies, 17 governorships, and 1,800 mayoralties. For President Sheinbaum and Morena, the stakes are very high: preserving the qualified congressional ...
Upcoming Webinar: Mexico at a Crossroads - Growth, Fiscal Strains and Trade Uncertainties
MEXICO · Report · 22 Sep 2026
Date: 23 Sep 2026 | Time: 10:00 AM EDT With job creation and productive investment remaining weak, what will it take to reignite Mexico’s economic growth? How serious are the challenges facing Mexico’s public finances, and what are the implications for the country's economic outlook? How can i...
Politics: Insecurity persists, but the criminal landscape is shifting
MEXICO · Report · 21 Sep 2026
Mexico's insecurity problem has not eased; it has changed shape. INEGI's 2026 victimization survey (ENVIPE) shows that while traditional street crimes—robbery, home burglary, vehicle theft—have fallen sharply since 2018 (down 44% as a group), fraud, extortion, and threats have surged and now acco...
Economics: Risks intensify on multiple fronts
MEXICO · Report · 21 Sep 2026
Mexico faces an adverse external environment, with oil prices remaining elevated following the US-Iran conflict, reigniting global inflationary pressures and prompting the Fed and the European Central Bank to resume rate hikes. This compounds risks for a Mexican economy marked by structural decel...
Economics: The 2027 Economic Package shows the same public finance trends and problems as 2018-2026
MEXICO · Report · 14 Sep 2026
The 2027 Economic Package presented by the SHCP on September 8 implies that public finances will likely continue along the same trajectory they have followed since 2018. In that regard, it is worth recalling that tax revenue grew steadily thanks to more aggressive income tax enforcement and lower...
Politics: Morena's legislative agenda for the new legislative period — between U.S. demands and electoral strategy
MEXICO · Report · 14 Sep 2026
The congressional session that opened on September 1 clearly reflects the Sheinbaum government's dual agenda ahead of the 2027 midterm and gubernatorial elections. Of the 31 items originally proposed by Morena's legislators, the Office of the Legal Counsel to the Presidency narrowed the agenda to...