MEXICO
Analysts
Mauricio González
Former Director of Economic Policy, Finance Ministry
Guillermo Valdés
Former Director, Center of Investigation & National Security
Mariano Ruiz-Funes
Former Director of Financial Policy, Ministry of Finance
Francisco González
Economic Consultant, GEA Grupo de EconomistasDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Politics: Violence and homicides—how are they measured and how much progress has been made?
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jul 2025
Public security is the number one issue for most Mexicans, and addressing, improving and resolving this issue is of key importance for the current presidential administration. In fact, it is the policy question in which President Sheinbaum has most clearly—although not explicitly—differentiated h...
Economics: The data released in July shows the economy remains stagnant
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jul 2025
The IGAE for May showed a 0.4% yoy uptick but on average, from January to May 2025, the Mexican economy showed no growth. The public finance report for that same month shows some apparent strength thanks to robust income tax and VAT collections alongside spending and debt reductions. However, the...
Economics: Data through May shows tariffs are hurting the trade performance of Mexico's major exporting sectors to the US but also have led to a drop in US exports to Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jul 2025
On July 12, President Trump issued his latest tariff threat against Mexico, consisting of a 30% across-the-board tariff starting August 1, due to what he considers insufficient efforts by the Mexican government to stop fentanyl trafficking and the steep trade deficit that the US maintains with Me...
Politics: Ties between Morena and organized crime place Sheinbaum between a rock and a hard place
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jul 2025
The thorny problem of ties between Morena governors and other public officials and organized crime, far from going away, is intensifying. These ties include the creation of large-scale criminal operations such as fuel theft, known as “huachicol”; the exchange of territorial control for electoral ...
Economics: Public finance results in May show some positive results but not enough to forego a further deterioration
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jul 2025
Some public finance results for May showed positive figures, but not many are expected to endure. The fiscal deficit was lowered a real -47% yoy thanks to an increase in budgetary revenues, especially robust VAT and income tax collections. However, depressed excise tax collections and oil-related...
Politics: Initiatives and recently approved laws represent a worrying setback for freedom of expression and citizens' privacy
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jul 2025
Is Mexico advancing, slowly or otherwise, toward an authoritarian state? Many critics of Claudia Sheinbaum’s government think so, and several recent developments would appear to validate such fears. For argument's sake, such developments could be attributable to some overzealous officials or chal...
Economics: Activity figures published in June point to stagnation for the rest of 2025
MEXICO · Report · 07 Jul 2025
Following May’s report showing that Q1 GDP edged up only around half a point in the first quarter, this past month’s aggregate supply and demand results filled out the picture as it showed a 25% drop in public investment, private investment turning sharply negative and consumption weakening consi...
Politics: Recently approved bills raise the specter of weakened civil liberties
MEXICO · Report · 07 Jul 2025
The priority of President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration has been to consolidate her predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s "Plan C", of obtaining and using an automatic two-thirds majority in congress to be able to pass legislation as well as amend the constitution in order to permanently...
Politics: The concentration of power and populism in the 4T have resulted in little effectiveness in economic development and security
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jul 2025
In her nine months in office, Claudia Sheinbaum’s priorities have been aimed at a) concretizing AMLO’s “Plan C” of enshrining the 4T’s policies in the constitution, thereby altering the country’s political regime and further concentrating power in the presidency and b) limiting the damage caused ...