MEXICO
Analysts
Mauricio González
Former Director of Economic Policy, Finance Ministry
Guillermo Valdés
Former Director, Center of Investigation & National Security
Mariano Ruiz-Funes
Former Director of Financial Policy, Ministry of Finance
Francisco González
Economic Consultant, GEA Grupo de EconomistasDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Economics: Q4 2025 GDP grew 1.4% YoY, resulting in weak full-year growth of 0.5%
MEXICO · Report · 02 Feb 2026
According to figures from INEGI, GDP for Q4 2025 increased by 1.6% YoY seasonally adjusted, showing a rebound compared to the previous quarter, when it fell -0.2%. This performance resulted in a total increase of 0.5% for 2025. The secondary sector experienced weak growth in Q4 (0.3%) but is i...
Politics: Some of Mexico's important vulnerabilities vis-à-vis the Trump Administration
MEXICO · Report · 02 Feb 2026
Facing the review and possible renegotiation of the USMCA in 2026, Mexico has some shielding against extreme tariff measures due to its deep integration with North American value chains, but its negotiating capacity is severely undermined by a set of internal economic and structural vulnerabiliti...
Economics: December and January economic activity figures indicate a slight upturn following the stagnation of 2025
MEXICO · Report · 26 Jan 2026
The economic activity figures released at the end of December and so far in January indicate that the stagnation of the first three quarters of the year has begun to transition to a very slight upturn in the last two months. This aligns with our growth expectation for 2026 of 1.1% (vs. 0.3% estim...
Politics: Foreign policy and national security omissions of the Mexican government in a critical context
MEXICO · Report · 26 Jan 2026
Mexico's development horizon, based on economic integration with the United States, entered a crisis starting with Trump's first presidency (2016-2020). His administration questioned NAFTA and migration, coming to perceive Mexico not as a reliable partner, but as a threat on multiple fronts, with...
Economics: The Mexican automotive sector closes 2025 in negative territory, facing considerable challenges for 2026
MEXICO · Report · 20 Jan 2026
On Tuesday, January 13, U.S. President Donald Trump made several statements, first during a visit to a Ford plant in Dearborn, Michigan, and later before the Detroit Economic Club. He referred to the USMCA as "irrelevant" for the US, claiming it offers "no real advantage" and could be renewed or ...
Politics: The prospects for 2026
MEXICO · Report · 20 Jan 2026
2026 will be a decisive year for President Claudia Sheinbaum, who faces multiple crossroads in consolidating the Fourth Transformation (4T) while balancing internal loyalties and external pressures. Politically, the government is pushing an electoral reform aimed at achieving overrepresentation i...
Economics: New tariffs on Chinese products approved, with a big share of intermediate products and M&E
MEXICO · Report · 13 Jan 2026
On December 10th, tariffs on 1,463 products for countries with which Mexico does not have a trade agreement were approved, after the initiative was presented to Congress by the Ministry of the Economy last September. As we mentioned in our September 30 Economic Outlook, these tariffs were propose...
Politics: The repercussions in Mexico of the US intervention in Venezuela
MEXICO · Report · 12 Jan 2026
The U.S. military intervention in Venezuela has shifted the global landscape, increasing pressure on the Mexican government to address the links between politics and organized crime. The repercussions in Mexico will be highly significant becaise this event has exposed—through the stances taken by...
Economics: Third-quarter aggregate demand figures reflect weak private consumption and a deep contraction in fixed investment
MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2025
On Friday, December 19, the aggregate supply and demand figures for the third quarter of 2025 were released. They show that aggregate demand (equal to supply) grew by 1.0% YoY according to seasonally adjusted figures and accumulated an increase of 0.7% YoY in the first nine months of the year. ...