PERU
Analyst
Alfredo Thorne
Former Minister of Economy and FinanceDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Right-wing candidates take the lead; energy price shock justifies growth forecast cut and inflation forecast hike; we project BCRP policy pause for 2026
PERU · Report · 17 Mar 2026
In this forecast, we review our political scenarios; the impact of supply-price shocks on the economy and inflation; and the likely response by the Board of the Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (the BCRP, Peru’s central bank). Since the end of February, local politics and geopolitics have mo...
Peru: President Jeri to be impeached
PERU · In Brief · 13 Feb 2026
Last night, Congress gathered the necessary support from congress-members to call an extraordinary Congress’ session and discuss President Jeri impeachment. However, Fuerza Popular party and Congress- speaker, Fernando Rospigliosi, from the same party are making it difficult. For once, although 8...
President Jeri risks impeachment; election race heats up; fiscal deficit reached 2.2% of GDP in 2025; PEN/USD appreciation persists
PERU · Report · 10 Feb 2026
We try to answer three key questions in this report: Will Congress impeach President José Jerí? Has the government met its fiscal targets? And is the Banco Central de la República del Perú (BCRP, the central bank) departing from its usual FX intervention policy? In politics, the focus remains...
Peru's President Jerí could face impeachment
PERU · In Brief · 21 Jan 2026 · 1 response
Today at 2pm, Lima time, caretaker president José Jerí will attend Congress' Fiscalization Commission. On Sunday 11th Latina TV aired a video of president Jeri with a hood covering his face and at the middle of the night on December 26th entering a store of a Chinese entrepreneur Zhihua Yang a co...
Election campaign gains momentum; economy decelerated in November 2025; BCRP steps up FX intervention; and MEF to reorganize PetroPerú
PERU · Report · 20 Jan 2026
We cover three topics in this report. First, we analyze developments in the runup to the April 12 general elections. Second, we look at the economy, and argue that a deceleration began in Q4 2025. Finally, we turn to local financial markets, and discuss the increased FX intervention by the Centra...
Election risk in the spotlight; economy to grow by 3.2% in 2025, and 3% in 2026; BCRP likely to extend its policy pause through April
PERU · Report · 23 Dec 2025
In this report, we discuss our most recent forecasts. We first elaborate our political scenarios, and argue that there’s a downside risk in the run-up to first-round national elections in April. We have increased the probability of our low case scenario to 30%, reduced the chance of our base case...
Political risk eases with the appointment of President Jeri; economy surprises on the positive side; the BCRP’s policy dilemma
PERU · Report · 25 Nov 2025
In this report we offer an update on politics, the economy and markets. We first discuss how political risk has remained muted, despite the impeachment of former president Dina Boluarte, and Congress’s naming of José Jerí as interim president, while extending its own term through July 28th. Next,...
Congress ousts President Dina Boluarte; José Jerí is appointed as caretaker president; political uncertainty to drive economic slowdown in Q4; we revise our PEN/USD spot rate to project less PEN weakening
PERU · Report · 21 Oct 2025
In this report, we focus on the ouster of President Dina Boluarte; the appointment of José Jerí as caretaker president to serve out her term; the protests in response to these developments; and the likely economic and market consequences. First, we discuss politics: the drivers of congressiona...
Peru's President Jerí's new cabinet
PERU · In Brief · 15 Oct 2025
Last night, the new president, José Jerí, took oath to his new Cabinet, consisting of 18 new ministers. Ahead of the Oath Ceremony at the Presidential Palace, Jerí said that none of the previous ministers would be included and his was a “transition Cabinet and of national reconciliation.” Overall...