PHILIPPINES
Analyst
Diwa Guinigundo
Former Central Bank Deputy GovernorDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Does weak business sentiment portend weak GDP for Q1 2025?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 14 Apr 2025
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), in its latest monetary policy report, claimed that the Philippines’ economic growth could be just “near the lower bound” of the government’s growth target of 6-8% from 2025 through 2028. We would call this a demonstration of the BSP’s independence and auton...
Lower inflation means rate cuts, but pushback is building from inflation and stability concerns
PHILIPPINES · Report · 31 Mar 2025
We believe that benign inflation readings and forecasts should allow the BSP to sustain its easing cycle at least twice this year and in baby steps. Modest easing is critical when uncertainties abound, particularly regarding the prospects for growth and financial stability. With a potentially wea...
Reflections on economic growth: dynamics and risks
PHILIPPINES · Report · 14 Mar 2025
At end-January 2024, the Philippines’ statistical authority announced that the country’s economy expanded by 5.6%, just a tad higher than the 5.5% growth in 2023. Growth was propelled by financial and insurance activities up 8.5 percent; construction up 7.8 percent; and wholesale and retail trade...
Elusive inflation
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Mar 2025
GlobalSource Partners Philippines has been monitoring and analyzing domestic inflation in the Philippines, its dynamics and directions. Its focus has been to assess the appropriateness of monetary policy settings on the evolving inflation trend, rather on any point observation or estimate of next...
Keeping inflation at bay could be tricky
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 08 Feb 2025 · 1 response
Last January 30, 2025, the media bannered that inflation may likely fall within the target of 2-4% for the next two years. This was based on the latest BSP survey of external forecasters as contained in its latest Monetary Policy Report. Mean inflation rate was quoted at 3.1% against the central ...
Anti-2025 budget group gathers force, to hold indignant rally January 31
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 29 Jan 2025
At the end of December 2024, we wrote that the Philippines’ national budget for 2025 may not be able to achieve those lofty goals of promoting higher food production, arresting inflation, elevating the quality of education and skills training as well as public health. Despite the protestations co...
Food security emergency could risk inflation
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 20 Jan 2025
The beginning of 2025 does not seem to augur well for the Marcos government. It is under heavy siege for the so-called “sub-optimal” 2025 budget, for some, “unconscionable” budget. It is accused of corruption at all levels of government. Even retired generals and uniformed officials of the police...
National Budget for 2025: more than a zero-sum game
PHILIPPINES · Report · 31 Dec 2024
The Philippines’ P6.3 trillion national budget for 2025 may not succeed in delivering on the lofty social goals enunciated by President Marcos in his July 2024 State of the Nation Address for 2025. The allocations involving some realignment disfavored the priority sectors of education, health and...
Beating inflation: Doing beyond the usual stuff
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 30 Dec 2024
During the weekend, the Philippines’ central bank, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) announced that the December inflation rate could have tipped the scale at 2.3% -3.1%, well within the 2%-4% target. If inflation hits the mid-point of this forecast at 2.7%, the actual whole-year inflation ra...