PHILIPPINES
Analyst
Diwa Guinigundo
Former Central Bank Deputy GovernorDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
A fair deal?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Jul 2025
In our recent report on the Philippines’ negotiation with the US government on the level of reciprocal tariff, we argued that only its military and security value could be the only bargaining chip of President Marcos in his recent visit to the US. And he should not squander it. Its small trade su...
"I thought I won!"
PHILIPPINES · Report · 23 Jul 2025
From all indications, it is Manila's military and security value that was the only bargaining chip of President Marcos in his recent US visit. The country's trade value added is minuscule. Its exports to the US, mainly consisting of semi-con and other electronic products, have very close substitu...
Government downscales growth targets
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Jun 2025
The Philippine Government, through the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) a few days ago, reviewed and updated its medium-term macroeconomic assumptions, growth targets and fiscal program for this year and the next two years 2026 and 2027. Given the increased uncertainties and recen...
Gunning for a risk-adjusted Israel-Iran war scenario
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Jun 2025
Based on the recent assessment by his economic team, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr was reported to have “downplayed” the expected fallout from the Israel-Iran ballistic war compounded by the US bombing of three nuclear facilities in Iran. Manageable, he said, and “so far, there is no s...
BSP's rate cut justified by large monetary space
PHILIPPINES · Report · 23 Jun 2025
Some segments of business media were quite skeptical about the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) decision last Thursday. The Philippines’ monetary authorities opted to sustain for the second time a 25-basis-point reduction in its policy rate and issued virtual forward guidance that it is prepare...
"No" to accountability and justice?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 04 Jun 2025
Even before the Philippines’ House of Representatives impeached Vice President Sara Duterte on February 5, 2025 by a vote of 215 out of 306 members based on a 44-page “verified complaint for impeachment,” President Ferdinand Marcos Jr had on many occasions distanced himself from the whole process...
May 12 elections: A wake-up call to BBM and an audience for progressive thoughts
PHILIPPINES · Report · 15 May 2025
A quick glance at the results of the Philippines’ May 12 mid-term elections shows initial signs that the Filipino electorate has started repudiating movie stars and game show hosts, political dynasties, deadwood, and those suspected of plunder and corruption. The formula of name recall, political...
No sequel to Duterte 1.0?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 03 May 2025
What is at crucial stake in the forthcoming mid-term election on May 12 in the Philippines is not so much the large number of elective positions, and that is 18,280. It is rather the number of senators that Vice-President Sara Duterte could help land in the magic 12. Led by Speaker Martin Romuald...
Does weak business sentiment portend weak GDP for Q1 2025?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 14 Apr 2025
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), in its latest monetary policy report, claimed that the Philippines’ economic growth could be just “near the lower bound” of the government’s growth target of 6-8% from 2025 through 2028. We would call this a demonstration of the BSP’s independence and auton...