UKRAINE
Analysts
Vladimir Dubrovskiy
Former Advisor, State Property Fund
Dmytro Boyarchuk
Executive Director, CASE-UkraineDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Q2 GDP beats Q1, but H2 outlook darkens as air strikes intensify
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Sep 2026
Ukraine's GDP growth accelerated to 0.4% y/y in Q2 2026, according to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine — revised down from the preliminary estimate of +0.6% y/y. This follows a 0.6% y/y contraction in Q1 2026. The improvement was driven mainly by a smaller negative contribution from net ex...
Bracing for a decisive fifth winter
UKRAINE · Report · 08 Sep 2026
American envoys of Donald Trump — Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner — are visiting Kyiv for what is being billed as a new round of negotiations. No one expects a breakthrough in these "peace talks," but the visit serves as a gesture of courtesy by the U.S. president, keeping up the appearance that ...
From refineries to airspace: Russia's war enters a new phase of escalation
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Sep 2026
The war is clearly entering a new phase of escalation. Widely discussed and widely expected, it is now unfolding in real time. Zelenskiy's statement on September 1 that Russian airspace will effectively be closing marks a new level of pressure on Moscow and St Petersburg — one that the Russian le...
Bracing for a comprehensive Black Sea seaports blockade
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Aug 2026
We are heading toward a complete blockade of Black Sea seaports, affecting both Ukraine and Russia. To understand what's happening, let's start with a broader view of the battlefield in Russia's war against Ukraine. Russian forces on the ground have effectively stalled, with no meaningful advance...
NBU Inflation Report: a new narrative — weapons production as the growth story
UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 Aug 2026
The NBU has released a new Inflation Report, which marks a significant shift in tone compared to what we've seen from the central bank previously. The first point relates to the worsened inflation outlook already flagged in the NBU's communications following the Board's decision on the key policy...
Improved mood in Washington insufficient to combat winter of ballistic strikes
UKRAINE · Report · 04 Aug 2026
Sentiment within Washington's ruling circles appears to be gradually shifting in Ukraine's favor. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s July 28 meeting in Washington with U.S. President Donald Trump was the first to unfold amid relatively positive sentiment, and information backdrop. There is bipartisan...
Monetary policy: NBU raises key policy rate to 15.5% in a preventive move amid rising risks
UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Jul 2026
The NBU Board raised the key policy rate by 0.5 ppt to 15.5%, effective 31 July. This was the first rate increase since the beginning of the year. Recall that in January the NBU cut the rate from 15.5% to 15.0%, signalling the start of an easing cycle. However, no further easing followed since th...
Momentum shifts: Zelensky visits Washington amid improving US sentiment toward Ukraine
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Jul 2026
Today’s meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump in Washington was different from what we have grown accustomed to. For the first time under this administration, Ukraine’s president arrived in the American capital against a genuinely favorable news backdrop and amid moderately positive...
Zelensky reshuffles military leadership as mobilization pressures mount
UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 Jul 2026
After a week of street protests over the dismissal of former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, President Volodymyr Zelensky replaced Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi with Mykhailo Drapatyi. Recall that after the dismissal of the Svyrydenko Cabinet, one narrative began to spread that the enti...