UKRAINE
Analysts
Vladimir Dubrovskiy
Former Advisor, State Property Fund
Dmytro Boyarchuk
Executive Director, CASE-UkraineDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
NBU raises prime eate to 15.5% amid high inflation, depreciation pressures, and growing tensions with U.S.
UKRAINE · In Brief · 06 Mar 2025
The NBU Board has predictably raised the prime rate for the third time, increasing it by 1.0 ppt to 15.5%, effective March 7. Additionally, the NBU adjusted the 'working' rates for the banking system by 1 ppt. On top of that, it widened the spread by 1.0 ppt between the prime rate and the three-m...
Oval Office showdown: no peace deal in sight, Ukraine fights on amid tough road ahead
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Mar 2025
I expected Trump’s peace initiative to fail at some stage, but the way it unfolded in the Oval Office was particularly harsh. It took me some time to gather my thoughts and form a vision of how things might develop from here. So, firstly, what happened? Donald Trump ran into serious trouble fulfi...
Trump’s quick fixes hit a wall
UKRAINE · Report · 25 Feb 2025
U.S. President Donald Trump appears disappointed and irritated that his fast-track approach to brokering a Russia-Ukraine peace deal has stalled from the start. It’s evident that the new U.S. administration lacks a strategic plan for countering Russian aggression. Instead, the strategy seems to i...
"Peace for Our Time": Trump talks to Putin—will history repeat itself?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Feb 2025
The ballet of peace negotiations is intensifying. Donald Trump spoke with Vladimir Putin, claiming that the Russian leader wants peace in Ukraine. Meanwhile, newly appointed U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth publicly stated that he does not believe Ukraine will regain its 2014 borders and ru...
Inflation report: NBU sidesteps discussion on 2025’s potential defining event
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Feb 2025
The NBU released its latest inflation report last Friday and held an expert discussion on the document today. The best way to describe the report would be ‘indistinct.’ The inflation forecast was revised upward to +8.4% YTD in 2025 (from the previously projected 6.9%), while the GDP growth foreca...
NBU Raises Prime Rate to 14.5%, Signals Further Hikes Ahead
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Jan 2025
The NBU Board has raised the prime rate again by 1.0 ppt to 14.5%, effective January 24. The 'working' rates have also been adjusted: the overnight deposit certificate rate increased to 14.5% (from 13.5%), the three-month deposit certificate rate rose to 17.0% (from 16.0%), and the refinancing ra...
Trump slaps Putin in the face with a proposal to get a favor
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Jan 2025
That’s a nice way to kick off negotiations. Whether intentionally or not, Donald Trump’s post landed a direct blow to the very core of Russist ideology. For years, Russian ruler Vladimir Putin has cultivated a "victory cult" in Russian society, glorifying May 9th, Victory Day, and claiming public...
The fog of war: understanding broader battlefield realities
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Jan 2025
On the eve of Donald Trump’s inauguration, let me provide an overview of the current stance on the battlefield in Ukraine to offer a better picture of where we stand and the position from which the announced negotiations might commence. I am not a military expert—I’ve said that many times. What I...
Fresh polls: sentiments on territorial concessions evolve amid peace deal discourse
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Jan 2025
The world is abuzz with discussions about President-elect Donald Trump's territorial claims on Greenland and Canada. Meanwhile, I’d like to share some new poll results reflecting Ukrainian sentiments, which seem particularly significant as we approach the upcoming negotiations after January 20. F...