VENEZUELA
Analysts
Ruth Krivoy
Former Central Bank President
Tamara Herrera
Former Advisor, Banking Industry AssociationDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Rule of (martial) law
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Dec 2024
En route to Maduro’s inauguration on 10 January 2025, the government is preparing for possible violence by passing draconian laws that legalize repression and virtually eliminate all space for public protest. It’s setting up permanent martial law. A recent exchange of moderating gestures betwe...
Inflation in 2025 will hinge on oil prices
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Dec 2024
Our inflation and exchange rate forecasts for the remainder of 2024 and for 2025 rest on the assumption that the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) will hold to its crawling peg regime that began in mid-October. It will not revert to an exchange rate peg. Restrictive fiscal and monetary policies ...
The Hardest Thing
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Dec 2024
The hardest thing to forecast today is in what kind of climate Maduro’s apparently inevitable inauguration takes place on January 10. The state security apparatus is on high alert, and tensions are rising, as Nicolás Maduro's swearing-in ceremony approaches. Donald Trump’s and Marco Rub...
Consequences of a failed policy
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 25 Nov 2024
The Venezuelan authorities’ strategy of curbing inflation by pegging the official exchange rate by mid-October had opened up a gap between the official and parallel rates so wide that it forced the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) to loosen the official rate. Subsequently, inflation began accelera...
Time will tell
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Nov 2024
Trump's view of the world is the same as it was during the years of his first presidency. He also maintains his assertively unilateralist and transactional approach to foreign policy. Venezuela is not high on his international agenda. It enters it tangentially because of the deportation of mig...
Central bank adopts a (de facto) crawling peg
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Nov 2024
We have revised up our inflation and exchange rate projections following the October breakdown of the exchange rate peg and the subsequent volatility and uncertainty in the foreign exchange market. We foresee that the central bank will have the necessary resources to sustain a gradual devaluat...
On pause
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Oct 2024
Nicolás Maduro, who is hugely unpopular, is heading toward his January 10th swearing-in ceremony for a third presidential term guided by two strategic objectives: to ensure cohesion within his ruling group and to build renewed "legitimacy" via tighter institutional control. He counts on repressio...
The exchange rate anchor finally gave in
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Oct 2024
On Friday, October 11, the unsustainability of the policy of anchoring the official exchange rate materialized. The BCV sold $30 million in an “auction” in which it gave signals about the price it was looking for and took the rate to 39.75 bolivars per dollar, marking an increase of 3 percent in ...
A complex landscape
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 09 Oct 2024 · 1 response
The 2024-2025 outlook is strongly influenced by the July 28, 2024 events. They raised the risk of diplomatic and economic isolation, imposed a brake on growth and disinflation, and increased the likelihood of an exchange rate crisis that might derail stabilization policy. Avoiding this course req...