2024 GDP growth revised higher, prompting deceleration in 2025

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 14 Apr 2025 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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Rosstat published the long-awaited revised quarterly GDP statistics for 2022-2024 and the updated 2024 annual growth figure. The latter now stands at 4.3% versus the 4.1% initial flash estimate. It means that in 2024, economic growth reportedly accelerated as the 2023 GDP grew by 4.1%. Seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP reportedly grew in 4Q24 by 1.6% Q-o-Q, having posted a 4.5% y-o-y growth, i.e., faster than in 2Q24 and 3Q25 (4.3% and 3.3%) but below the 1Q24 y-o-y figure (5.4%). The seasonally adjusted Q-o-Q growth also accelerated in 4Q24 relative to the previous two quarters. Generally, it looks as though economic growth was strong enough in 2024. However, its seasonally adjusted quarterly acceleration, and in annual terms, is questionable. Indeed, in previous years, seasonally adjusted quarterly real GDP growth often didn’t fully match the reported yearly numbers. For instance, if one takes real seasonally adjusted quarterly 2023 numbers and calculates the 2023 GDP growth, the figure appears lower (3.9%) than the officially reported figure for 2023. The same mismatch arises for the entire period from 2020, i.e., quarterly-based calculations would produce a yearly growth figure lower by 0.2%-0.3% than the officially reported annual numbers. One conclusion from these observations is that the 2025 GDP growth number will be visibly lower—not least because the 1Q25 growth figure should look poor on the back of the inflated 4Q24 growth (which could, to some extent, be explained by the under-accounted economic activity in 9M24 that might have shown up in the 4Q24 data). Leaving aside these observations, it makes sense to reiterate that, in recent years, domestic factors ...