A Real Time Big Data poll shows Caiado narrowly leading Lula in a runoff, Flávio is struggling to secure alliances ahead of the elections, and the new 25% U.S. tariffs on Brazilian products take effect today

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 22 Jul 2026 by Murillo de Aragão and Cristiano Noronha

A Real Time Big Data poll released yesterday showed PSD candidate Ronaldo Caiado narrowly leading President Lula in a hypothetical presidential runoff, with 44% to Lula’s 43%. Against Flávio Bolsonaro, however, Lula would prevail by 45% to the senator’s 42%. In addition, Flávio is struggling to secure alliances with Republicanos and the PP–União Brasil Federation. If those negotiations fail, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro may end up running on an all-PL ticket. The new 25% U.S. tariffs on Brazilian products take effect today. In addition, the United States is expected to impose another tariff on Brazilian goods as part of an investigation into imports allegedly produced with forced labor.

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