An encouraging print in the long disinflation journey

TURKEY - Report 03 Mar 2025 by Murat Ucer

Consumer prices rose by a markedly lower than expected 2.3%, m/m, versus market consensus of 3% (February 2024: 4.5%). Our miss primarily stemmed from a better performance in food, and to a lesser extent textile and health sub-categories. The 12-month CPI inflation thus fell further to 39.1% -- a 20-month low -- from 42.1% in January. Monthly domestic PPI inflation increased by 2.1% in the month, with the 12-month rate also falling to 25.2% from 27.2% in January.

In terms of contributions, while the drop in the monthly CPI inflation (versus the same month of 2024) was sort of broad-based, slightly more than half of the drop came from food, as housing prices made a somewhat higher contribution this February vs last.

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