An opportunity to demonstrate statesman’s capabilities
President Noboa is obliged to maintain a difficult political equilibrium between Washington and China. He was officially invited to visit China by Xi Jinping, but while both Noboa and Trump have mentioned their excellent relations with Ecuador, and Noboa has visited Mar-a-Lago unofficially, he has never received an official invitation from the White House.
Ecuador has an agreement with the United States to help control organized crime and violence, and there is a temporary bilateral trade agreement that we believe benefits the US more than Ecuador, but that had to be signed. However, there is no presence or interest shown by US companies in coming to invest in Ecuador.
On the other hand, Ecuador has a full trade agreement with China, which in its two years of existence has helped Ecuador increase exports to China by 23% y/y and to position shrimp as a star export, representing more than 50% of China’s world imports of this product. This agreement has significantly reduced the costs of imports of raw materials, capital goods, and technological goods, which represent 77% of total imports from China.
Additionally, in April 2026, Ecuador signed the final acceptance act for the receipt of the electric power plant Coca Codo Sinclair—the largest in the country—and transferred its operative control to Power China in exchange for a lump sum of approximately $400 million and the payment of $45 million annually for services for the next 25 years. The company has also committed to investing $400 million in renewable energy.
Chinese companies control six of the 10 major mining projects in Ecuador, including the largest gold and copper mines. Hence 94.7% of copper exports and 53.8% of gold exports go to China. On the other hand, large mining companies such as BHP and Newmont have withdrawn their interest in coming to invest in Ecuador.
In this context, the visit of President Noboa to China is of the utmost importance and so far, we know that he has signed five MOUs and one agreement that details a cooperation route for the future. We sincerely hope that these initiatives do not die on paper, since direct investment is critical for the economic future of this country.
There has been no comment from the White House on this visit. On the other hand, Xi Jinping defended the right of Latin American countries to choose their commercial partners in the context of bilateral geopolitical independence.
In this report, we discuss the outlook for the country's macro and fiscal situation, as well as developments in Ecuador's domestic and geopolitics.
Now read on...
Register to sample a report