Baseline scenario confirmed: U.S. tariffs exclude Chilean copper inputs

CHILE - In Brief 01 Aug 2025 by Igal Magendzo

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According to the official White House communication, the new tariff package imposes a 50% ad valorem duty on imports of certain semi-fabricated copper products (e.g., tubes, wires, rods, and sheets) and copper-intensive downstream goods (such as pipe fittings, cables, connectors, and electrical components). However, primary copper inputs — including refined copper cathodes, copper ores and concentrates, blister, anodes, matte, and scrap — are explicitly excluded from the measure. We viewed it as unlikely that the U.S. would impose punitive tariffs on core upstream materials essential to domestic value chains, particularly in sectors like construction, power infrastructure, and manufacturing. The revised scope allows policymakers to frame the measure as targeted industrial policy rather than as a distortion to input cost structures. The tariffs have virtually no direct effect on Chilean copper exports to the U.S., which are heavily concentrated in refined copper and copper cathodes — categories explicitly excluded from the new tariffs (Table 1). In 2024, Chile exported USD 6.1 billion in copper and copper-related products to the U.S., of which USD 6.0 billion corresponded to refined copper. The only affected product class with Chilean exposure is copper wire (HS 7408), but exports in this category totaled just USD 72 million in 2024. From a macro perspective, the more relevant question is whether these tariffs could trigger indirect demand effects through broader shifts in global trade flows or industrial production. We judge this risk to be minimal for two reasons: The targeted goods represent a small subset of global copper demand. In 2023, the U.S. accounted for only...