Cautious optimism after the shock
The results of the first round of the presidential election came as a shock to many Ecuadorians—especially Noboa, his party, and supporters who, based on the polls, expected a win in this round. Not only was the close vote atypical of a first round (only 22,000 votes separated Noboa from Gonzalez), but the debacle suffered by all the remaining parties was also atypical. These results resemble a second-round outcome and are not comparable to the results of any past election, including those in which President Correa participated.
Even Leonidas Iza, who celebrated his third place standing, obtained only 591,382 votes, below the 765,980 null votes. Hence, even though the 301,886 votes captured by Andrea Gonzalez could return to Daniel Noboa, his major campaign effort should be aimed at winning some of the votes from Pachakutik and some of the null votes that are unlikely to go to Revolucion Ciudadana.
Pachakutik’s votes are highly uncertain. While Leonidas Iza expressed his intention to support Luisa Gonzalez, indigenous groups from Cotopaxi, where Iza got 98,000 votes, declared their support for Noboa. Other leaders have stated they are still undecided, and their final word will depend on “… the offers from each candidate.” Their decision will be made public on March 8.
Hence, Noboa will have to demonstrate an enormous and intelligent effort directed at voters from the central Andean Region and those who did not vote for Gonzalez but did not vote for him, either. The campaign during the second round is critical and will prove difficult and incomplete if Noboa does not address his problem with Vice President Veronica Abad in order to free up his time and improve his image prior to April 13.
Results for the Assembly, too, were atypical, following the presidential outcome. Revolucion Ciudadana ended up with 67 legislators, while ADN summed 66. Both are far from the 77 needed for a simple majority, and the competition to capture votes from the nine legislators from Pachakutik, the five legislators from the Social Christians and the remaining isolated votes from other parties will be fierce. It can be expected that whoever wins the presidency will be in a better position to negotiate at least an initial agreement for such a majority, and Noboa's AND party is in a much better position than in 2023.
However, a gloomy fiscal scenario awaits the winner of the election. Although 2024 ended with a General Government Budget (PGE) deficit of $3122b compared with $5747 million in 2023, this improvement came from an increase of $2.96b in tax collections from the tax reform that raised the VAT from 12% to 15% ($800 million), transitory taxes imposed on corporations and banks ($424 million) and corporate self-retentions that summed $1744 million. If those transitory taxes are not in effect in 2025, the deficit this year could return to around $5b.
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