Dotty old man: smile & wave
Though the situation for Ukraine is quite tough, it’s hard not to smile at the latest wave of peace deal efforts. Russian President Vladimir Putin openly plays with U.S. President Donald Trump’s aspirations to win a Nobel Peace Prize, using a tease-and-retreat approach: maintaining the illusion of a possible peace deal, while inventing new obstacles that prevent “friend Vladimir” from giving Trump what he desires most. This push-and-pull game might be thrilling for Trump and Putin, but it seems clear to everyone else that all that can be done with this pair is to make polite gestures of courtesy toward Trump’s pushes for peace, without overinvesting in dances doomed from the outset.
Ukraine is meanwhile experiencing the largest corruption scandal of Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s presidency. Anti-corruption bodies have revealed a scheme involving multiple top officials that could not have functioned without support from the Presidential Office. To calm the scandal, Zelenskiy dismissed, and replaced, Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak. But the political crisis is apparently not over, while attention has shifted to Trump’s efforts to close a “peace deal,” as the United States and Russia assumed Zelenskiy would be more inclined to accept unfavorable conditions amid the unfolding corruption scandal. They apparently misread the Ukrainian political process, as there is no strong internal political player demanding acceptance of a peace deal at any cost.
Against this backdrop, a critical decision for Ukraine was the continued EU funding for 2026–2027. The United States is withdrawing from Europe, and there is little sense in paying much attention to the wording of U.S. leadership or any maneuvers Washington is using to make this move look more palatable. In essence, the decision has been made, and the European Union is now on its own to cope with security issues. It is good that many European leaders clearly understand this. Investing in Ukraine is now clearly an investment in Europe’s own security, while European countries are rebuilding their capacities to face Russian aggression. Resistance to the decision to provide funding was fierce amid the corruption scandal in Ukraine and pressure from Russia and the United States, but €90 billion was approved. This now presents a major challenge for the Kremlin, as with sufficient funding on the table, Ukraine will be in a position to maintain resistance not only until the end of 2027 but beyond, since Ukraine’s financial support will be directly included in the EU budget starting in 2028. We cannot predict how the war will develop further, but the decision to continue support for Ukraine clearly undermines the Kremlin’s hope that it could prevail simply by outlasting Western support.
Recent polls indicate that Ukrainians are beginning to adapt to the routines of war. Since March 2025, the share of respondents saying they are ready to endure the war for as long as necessary has been slowly but steadily increasing, to an estimated 63% in December 2025. Ukrainian society is deeply exhausted by the deaths and injuries of friends and relatives, daily air raids, power outages and the lack of clarity about the future. Nevertheless, Ukrainians continue to reject humiliating Russian conditions for “peace,” without illusions about Russia. Such public sentiments reinforce the Ukrainian leadership’s resolve.
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