Economic growth reportedly decelerated in June, albeit available statistics were incomplete

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 01 Aug 2025 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

---

Rosstat’s recent monthly statistical bulletin (with June data) looked unusual as the statistical agency didn’t publish basic sectors output change (its favorite monthly proxy for overall economic activity). It occurred for the first time since the agency started publishing this indicator. In 5M25, this output increased by 1.4% y-o-y. On top of that, June statistics for retail and wholesale trade (an essential chunk of the basic sector’s output) haven’t been published either. No monthly data for the cargo transportation segment was published as well – just an overall 1H25 y-o-y growth. A couple of months ago, Rosstat stopped publishing monthly updates on demographics. It is unclear whether this change will be a new normal or if it is a temporary delay, as previously published statistical data are under revision. Despite these shortcomings (either temporary or from now on permanent) it is clear that economic growth decelerated in June. Industrial output increased by 1.4% y-o-y in 1H25 and shrank in June by 1.7% m-o-m in seasonally adjusted terms. In June alone, it grew by a mere 2.0%. The mining segment decreased y-o-y by 2.4% and 0.9% in 1H25 and June alone. The manufacturing segment was up y-o-y by 4.2% and 4.1% respectively. Interestingly, power generation posted double-digit y-o-y growth in both periods in real terms, which doesn’t fully match the notion of decelerating economic growth. On top of that, in physical terms, electricity generation contracted. Hence, it could well be the case that something was wrong with data collection and that the issue might be addressed in the coming months. Agriculture posted moderate growth of about 1.4-1.5% y-o-y in 1H25 and June....