Economics: Indicators point to further slowdown, as anticipated
Indicators were released during November that point to a more pronounced slowdown at the end of this year. Gross fixed capital formation fell an annual 0.9% in August, the first decline since February 2021, with construction experiencing a notable decrease. Industrial production remained weak in September, similar to recent months, and the growth of the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) slowed, increasing only an annual 0.8% for the same month.
On November 15, the Ministry of Finance presented the 2025 Economic Package, which prioritizes inertial fiscal policies and some new infrastructure projects. These projects lack any profitability assessment and represent an additional pressure on public finances. Several of the assumptions considered in the package are very optimistic, as in the case of the projected 2.5% economic growth for the coming year, along with meeting the goal of reducing the fiscal deficit from 5.9% of GDP in 2024 to 2.9% in 2027.
On the external front, Donald Trump's victory and his majority in the U.S. legislature imply that from the beginning of his administration the threat of imposing tariffs on Mexico will be present as a mechanism of pressure to curb migration and the entry of drugs into the United States. Trump will also exert pressure to limit Chinese investments in Mexico and trade with that country.
In the week's indicators, trade balance data was published, in which practically all components saw positive growth, with non-petroleum exports increasing an annual 13.5%. And Banxico published the balance of payments figures for the third quarter, which showed that the current account posted a surplus. Meanwhile, annualized FDI figures for new investment flows registered a decline.
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