GDP grew by 4.8% in 2024, growth acceleration unlikely this year

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 17 Feb 2025 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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Last Friday, the Bureau of National Statistics reported that the country’s GDP grew by 4.8%, which is not too bad (albeit the government growth targets are more ambitious). Production of goods (35% of GDP) was up by 5.6%, as industry, agriculture, and construction delivered 2.8%, 13.7%, and 13.1% growth. The services segment grew by 13.1%, given that trade expanded by 9.1%, and the transportation/storage segment grew by 8.5%. Services account for 58.3% of GDP (and net taxes on products fill the gap between goods and services production and GDP). Industry remained the largest segment of the Kazakh economy (25.6% of GDP) - followed by trade (19.1%). Construction and transportation/storage contribute another 11.4% of GDP, while agriculture adds a mere 3.9% share. Adding the 2.2% share of the communications to these segments of the economy would give us 62.2% of GDP, and the combined activity of this part of the economy is what the Bureau of National Statistics defines as the short-term indicator while providing monthly reports on the overall economic growth. So far, the Bureau offered no data on y-o-y and q-o-q quarterly economic growth rates that could match the annual 2024 GDP figure (only nominal GDP numbers are available. In nominal terms, GDP reached nearly KZT135.3 trln, i.e., about $288 bln. The Bureau also reported that in January 2025, this short-term indicator grew by 4.5% y-o-y, posting a sharp deceleration from 11.2% and 8.1% y-o-y growth in December and November. In 2024, as a whole, the short-term indicator reportedly grew by 6.2%. Interestingly, in January 2024 alone, this indicator grew y-o-y by 4.3% and then, statistically, posted a sharp acceleration y-o...