GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait budgets a large deficit, Saudi PMI soars, Sharjah issues bond, GCC opposes Trump’s Gaza plan

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 07 Feb 2025 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Oil dipped for a third week despite Trump’s return to maximum pressure on Iran.
* Saudi Arabia’s PMI surged to 60.5, the strongest in a decade. There were dips in other Gulf states.
* Fitch puts the Saudi fiscal breakeven at $96 in 2024 and sees debt rising to 35% of GDP in 2026.
* PIF-owned mining firm Maaden sold $1.25bn in 5-10 year debut sukuk, with strong demand.
* Dubai’s GDP growth slowed to 2.9% in Q3, the slowest since 2011, but most sectors expanded.
* Sharjah issued a €500m 7-year bond, and the preliminary 2024 deficit was -6.6% of GDP.
* A contract was awarded to build Abu Dhabi’s TA’ZIZ methanol plant.
* The UAE signed an AI partnership with France, including plans for a giant 1GW data center.
* Qatar’s inflation averaged 1.1% in 2024 and was just 0.2% y/y in December.
* Qatar sharply cut rental rates for industrial and logistic zones to attract investment.
* Kuwait’s budget has a $91 breakeven and sees a -13% GDP deficit if oil is at $68.
* Oman’s central bank announced a series of measures to boost lending for economic diversification.
* Trump’s proposal to take over Gaza and expel its people was firmly opposed by the GCC.
* Meanwhile, Qatar sought US support to advance negotiations for the second phase of the ceasefire.
* Syria’s president visited Saudi Arabia and Turkey and spoke to the French and German leaders.
* Databank updates: Kuwait budget, Dubai GDP, Sharjah and Saudi forecasts, Qatar inflation, PMIs.

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