GULF WEEKLY: Oman achieves 2024 fiscal surplus, KSA's current account falls into deficit, and Q3 non-oil GDP accelerates in Qatar and Abu Dhabi but contracts in Kuwait

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 03 Jan 2025 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Brent crude has rebounded to $76, the highest since October, on hopes of stimulus.
* Qatar, Kuwait and Oman all announced plans for 15% top-up taxes on large multinationals.
* The Saudi current account fell into deficit in Q3 for the first time in three years, at -3.3% of GDP.
* KSA secured a $2.5bn three-year credit facility, and Aramco plans up to $10bn in short-term notes.
* Abu Dhabi's growth accelerated to 4.5% in Q3, with non-oil up 6.6%, led by transport and finance.
* Dubai’s business confidence index dropped sharply (and surprisingly) to a 7-year low in Q3.
* Sharjah’s public sector budget plans a modest 2% spending increase, vs 16% in 2024.
* Qatar’s non-oil GDP growth accelerated sharply to 4.5% in Q3, led by construction and finance.
* Kuwait’s non-oil GDP unexpectedly declined by -2.5% in Q3 amidst major revisions to data since 2022.
* Kuwait stripped citizenship from another 5,800 people, bringing the total to 1.2% of the population.
* Oman achieved an estimated 2024 fiscal surplus of 1.3% of GDP and budgets a -1.4% deficit in 2025.
* Oman’s non-oil GDP grew by 4.1% y/y in the first nine months. A breakdown isn’t available yet.
* Oman’s new central bank governor is Ahmed al-Musalmi, previously CEO of Sohar Int. Bank.
* Bahrain’s FX reserves fell for a second month, down by -22% to less than three months of import cover.
* Bahrain’s current account surplus narrowed to 3.2% of GDP in Q3, the lowest in three years.
* Qatari and Kuwait ministers visited Damascus, and the new Syrian foreign minister visited Riyadh.
* Syria’s de facto leader said a new constitution, census and elections could take four years.
* Qatar is hosting more Gaza talks; the Palestinian Authority followed Israel in banning Al Jazeera.
* Databank updates: Oman & Sharjah budgets; GDP for Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Kuwait; BoP for KSA and Bahrain...

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