GULF WEEKLY: Saudi budget, KSA and RAK upgraded, UAE Q2 GDP, Lebanon ceasefire

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 29 Nov 2024 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* The OPEC+ meeting was postponed until Thursday, suggesting differences on tapering cuts.
* Trump’s Treasury Secretary pick was well received by markets, but wants to hike oil by 3m b/d.
* The Saudi budget sees tax revenue rising 3.8% but the planned expenditure cuts could be difficult.
* Ministers said NEOM is a long-term investment that should not be expected to provide quick returns.
* Saudi Arabia lowered its unemployment target for 2030 to 5%, having nearly achieved 7% already.
* Moody’s upgraded Saudi Arabia to Aa3 for the first time and sees the deficit narrowing in 2025.
* Morgan Stanley is following Goldman Sachs and Citi in setting up a regional HQ in Riyadh.
* UAE GDP grew by 3.9% y/y in Q2, well ahead of other Gulf States, with non-oil up 4.8%.
* S&P upgraded RAK to A on account of its fiscal discipline and growth prospects.
* The UAE ranks 5th/36 countries in the Stanford University AI Vibrancy Index.
* Adnoc is creating a new chemicals/low-carbon unit and may sell more Adnoc Gas equity.
* Qatar is making progress in talks to sell LNG to South Africa.
* Kuwait issued its first residency law since 1959 and stripped citizenship from more people.
* The IMF estimates lower 2023 off-budget spending in Bahrain but forecasts deficits of -7.7% of GDP in 2024-25.
* Bahrain sold a $1.25bn 7.5-year sukuk at 5.875%.
* A 60-day ceasefire began in Lebanon as Hizbollah agreed to stay north of the Litani River.
* Databank updates: Saudi budget, UAE Q2 GDP, forecasts for Bahrain, KSA, RAK and Abu Dhabi.

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