GULF WEEKLY: US tariffs threaten aluminum exporters, Saudi deficit is as expected, Kuwait plans bonds, Lebanon forms cabinet
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:
* Trump’s 25% tariff on aluminum will hurt Gulf exporters. They are already subject to 25% on steel.
* The GCC states are unlikely to be priority targets for Trump’s mooted “reciprocal” tariffs.
* As Trump engages with Russia, Gulf states are offering support in mediation on Ukraine.
* The Saudi deficit of -2.8% of GDP matched expectations, and debt rose 16% y/y to 30% of GDP.
* Major investments in Saudi AI, including a Neom data center, were announced at LEAP25.
* PIF provided new capital to Masdar Building Materials, taking a 30% stake.
* Dubai’s tourist arrivals rose by 9.4% y/y to 18.7m, and Musk may build an underground Dubai Loop.
* Kuwait’s finance minister said bond issuance (and hence a debt law) is coming soon.
* An agreement was signed to connect Oman to the GCCIA electrical grid by 2027.
* Bahrain Steel signed a $1.3bn five-year supply agreement with Qatar.
* The Gaza ceasefire looked shaky, and Trump reiterated his expulsion and takeover plan.
* Arab states criticized a comment by Netanyahu about forming a Palestinian State in KSA.
* Lebanon formed a new cabinet, which includes former officials from BlackRock and Strategy&.
* Databank updates: Saudi fiscal, Qatar forecasts, UAE inflation, Saudi manufacturing, OPEC oil.
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