Inflation remained elevated in January, the NBK held the base rate steady amid mounting uncertainty

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 04 Feb 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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While the initial economic and financial figures for January don’t look too bad, growing uncertainty has led the National Bank to keep the base rate at 18%. The NBK thinks inflation expectations are still high and seems set on holding the base rate steady for about six months. Y-o-y inflation is easing (down to 12.2% in January from 12.3% in December 2025), but that’s mostly due to base effects. In January 2026, m-o-m inflation hit 1.0%, which was lower than in January 2025. Global uncertainty, along with the Kazakh government’s plans to financially support the national investment holding “Baiterek,” is keeping inflation risks elevated. Once those plans become clearer, they could again prompt changes to budget spending.Monetary data showed a steady slowdown in household credit growth. In December, it rose by 0.7% m-o-m, compared to 1.1% to 1.4% between September and November 2025. Back in July and August, monthly credit growth was stronger at 2.0% and 3.5%. Still, inflation stayed high over the past couple of months, even with the tenge’s appreciation in the second half of 2025 and January 2026.In about a week, the Bureau of National Statistics will begin releasing January’s economic data, which should give a clearer picture of the situation. It seems the economy is still growing at a good pace, as suggested by strong revenue inflows to the National Fund last month. Tax revenues in January were noticeably higher than the 2025 monthly average and well above the figures for January 2025. Even though increased oil production was likely the main driver of this growth, strong revenue collection in the National Fund may be mirrored by good revenues of the Republican budget (...