Inflation slows, but NBU holds rate at 15.5%

UKRAINE - In Brief 12 Sep 2025 by Dmytro Boyarchuk
On September 11, the NBU Board, as expected, kept the prime rate unchanged at 15.5%. Inflation has been slowing for the past three months, reaching -0.2% m/m and +13.2% y/y in August. However, poor crop yields and persistent uncertainty with no progress in peace talks continue to weigh on the monetary authorities. In its press release, the NBU mentioned the possible start of a monetary easing cycle in Q4 2025. However, it also emphasized that the monetary stance will remain flexible, and tight conditions will be maintained if pro-inflationary risks intensify. The next Monetary Policy Committee meeting is scheduled for late October, and I expect the NBU by that time to set up their mind if they are ready for easing or not yet.

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