Iranian missiles, bank trials

TURKEY - In Brief 10 Mar 2026 by Atilla Yesilada

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I’ve bad news and good news for you. The bad news is Iran lobbing a second missile in the direction of the Incirlik Airbase. The good news is the Trump administration closing the forever-lasting Halkbank money laundering prosecution. Since I still think Iran War has weeks to go, I’m concerned about further attacks on American assets in Turkey, but I’ll defer a detailed discussion of why Iran may want to antagonize Turkey, saying only a couple of words about what may come next, like in a few days. The Halkbank settlement is a much bigger deal, which could open the door to a permanent improvement in the Turko-American relationship. Starting with the second Iranian missile; which “mistakenly” breached the Turkish airspace to be shot down by NATO defense, I don’t buy the argument that Iran has devolved to “mosaic defense”, which means field commanders are given the authority to act independently of the central command. It might have made sense last week, but not after the election of the new Supreme Leader, Mücteba Khameini. If there is any time when all Iranian military units need to act in coordination, this is it. On the other hand, if Iran truly wanted to take out the Incirlik Airbase, one missile would not have done the job. Thus, I’m uncertain about Iranian motivations, but remain mindful of further attacks. In fact, if the war escalates further Iran may wish to destroy the loading terminal of the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline to further reduce global crude supply. It may also activate its ample sleeper cells in Turkey to attack civilian American and Jewish targets, like corporations, or synagogues. At the end though, the second attack probably changed Erdogan’s positive ...