It will probably get worse before it gets better
As the war in Iran enters its third week, it has progressed faster, harder and broader in geographical scope than any expert imagined. This is now a war of attrition, with no clear outcome. To make matters worse, Trump seems to be wavering between his advisors who suggest a graceful exit, and those who suggest he double up the ante. In this kind of backdrop, it is difficult to conjure up good-case scenarios. The politics author devotes his essays to the Iran War and its spillover to Turkey again, having covered the state of Turko-American relations post-the Halkbank deal in a mid-week post.
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On the econ side, production indices had a mixed start into the year – though with a “more of the same” twist -- with industrial production sharply contracting sequentially, services remaining flat, but retail trade and construction holding up. The CBRT’s Participant Survey showed an across the board deterioration in yearend macro aggregates, though not a very dramatic one for now, except for the USD/TL rate, which remained unchanged.
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