January 2026 statistics points to negative y-o-y economic growth and looks puzzling

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 05 Mar 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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Rosstat reported that in January, output of the five basic sectors — industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade — fell by a sharp 3.2% y-o-y, following y-o-y growth of 4.0% in December and 1.4% for 2025 overall. Such big swings in economic trends can signal major turning points or reflect data collection issues, and both seem relevant here. January is a short month in Russia, and this year had only 15 working days compared to 17 in January 2026, so the calendar effect hit activity hard. Transportation output dropped 5.8% y-o-y, construction plunged 16.0%, and wholesale trade fell 11.3%. On the brighter side, retail sales edged up 0.7%, and consumer services saw growth, with cafes and restaurants surging 15.1% y-o-y — suggesting consumer demand is still alive. Agriculture also posted a modest 1.1% increase. What’s puzzling is that industrial output was said to have dropped 0.8% y-o-y and 23.7% m-o-m. Yet, seasonally adjusted figures from Rosstat show output was flat m-o-m in January. Rosstat also showed that this January’s decline wasn’t as steep as in January 2025. That makes the sharp y-o-y drop questionable. Using the reported January m-o-m figure, instead of the reported contraction annual growth could actually be around 4.9%. Breaking it down adds more confusion: mining was up 0.5% y-o-y, but the m-o-m data suggests 3.1% y-o-y growth; manufacturing was reportedly down 3.0% y-o-y, yet its monthly number points to 3.0% y-o-y growth. In the next month or two, these statistical quirks will probably be sorted out, but for now, the published figures should be treated with caution. Interestingly, the m-o-m and y-o-y time series for the short-term indic...