Economics: The data released in July shows the economy remains stagnant

MEXICO - Report 28 Jul 2025 by Mauricio González and Francisco González

The IGAE for May showed a 0.4% yoy uptick but on average, from January to May 2025, the Mexican economy showed no growth. The public finance report for that same month shows some apparent strength thanks to robust income tax and VAT collections alongside spending and debt reductions. However, the fiscal deficit target of 3.9% of GDP remains out reach. This coming Wednesday’s preliminary GDP report for the second quarter should shed additional light on the direction the economy is taking.

Regarding consumer prices trends, for the first two weeks of July inflation fell 96 basis points to 3.55% yoy, down from 4.51% in the first half of June, largely due to a 401-basis-point drop in the non core rate, which fell to 1.24%. And retail sales rose an annual 2.5% in May, bouncing back from a weak April. However, such gains are potentially jeopardized by the ongoing erosion of wholesale sales, which fell -7.8% in May.

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