Kazakhstan Macro: January 2026 statistics look underwhelming, as economic growth in 2025 may have been overstated
The Bureau of National Statistics has released its preliminary 2025 quarterly GDP figures, and as usual, only y-o-y growth rates for cumulative periods within the year are available. As we have mentioned before, the initially published numbers have never been revised in the past, so the reported 6.5% GDP growth for 2025 will likely remain unchanged. GDP growth picked up, driven by faster growth in the industry and transportation sectors. This was partly due to increased oil production and exports (in volume). As is well known, Kazakhstan far exceeded its oil production quotas under the OPEC+ agreements. Even so, the reported sharp, sudden surge in the transportation and warehousing sector last year seems puzzling.
Looking at various sets of data from the Bureau of National Statistics, we believe that the Kazakh economy in 2025 likely grew at a slightly slower rate than the reported 6.5%, probably under 6.0%. If other conditions stay the same, this means that despite a sharp slowdown in January, growth in 2026 as a whole could remain high enough and align with the trajectory seen before the overheated 2025. It could decelerate to 4.5% - 5.0%. Household spending may be restrained by slower credit growth and high interest rates, while investments should still grow at a near double-digit pace, even though January saw only a 3.4% y-o-y increase, down from 13.4% for all of 2025 (likely due to reporting issues seen in other indicators, as well). While the CPC is on the way to fully restore its capacity, and it may take months to repair the damaged sea terminal, Kazakh oil exporters are finding new routes for shipments. Meanwhile, keeping in mind all reservations about the reliability of official macro statistics, January’s data underscores how vulnerable Kazakhstan’s economy is to external shocks because it is so heavily dependent on the oil sector.
Now read on...
Register to sample a report