La nausée
Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the court-appointed chairman of CHP, seems to be in collusion with President Erdogan, hollowing out the party step by step by ejecting MPs and rank-and-file by disciplinary action. He has no intention to convene a new Grand Convention to pit himself against former chair Ozgur Ozel. In fact, the rumor that soon Ozel himself will be removed from the party has significant merit. In that case, Ozel will be left with no choice but to abandon ship and launch a new party.
Erdogan is also redoubling the assault on CHP from various vantage points. With Kilicdaroglu doing his bidding eagerly, his new target is Ozel whose parliamentary immunity may be ended before 2027, to be followed by a ban on holding political office.
While this topic is not covered separately today, talk of snap elections in late 2026 remains a perennial favorite of pundits, but early elections are neither necessary nor realistic in the view of the politics author. Despite eliminating his potential CHP rivals, Erdogan will have a very difficult time to win the next round as the economy grinds down under the weight of arbitrariness, high inflation and chronic underemployment.
On the econ side, having written on the MPC meeting during the week, we briefly look at last week’s data releases, namely the seasonally-adjusted May inflation numbers (“stuck”); the April balance of payments data (“a nice respite after the truly awful March”) and the June CBRT Survey results (“gradual deterioration continues”).
As usual, we also take a quick look at the latest reserve numbers, which seem to be suffering at the headline level from the recent drops in the gold price.
Meanwhile, the country continues to be the stage for very odd and haphazardly developments, like the latest appointment of so-called audit trustees to almost all poultry firms in the country.
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