Lower growth; higher risk

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 07 Mar 2025 by Alexandre Schwartsman, Cristina Pinotti and Diego Brandao

GDP growth in the last quarter of 2024 came out below expectations. Although a certain slowdown was already anticipated, in ligt of high-frequency data previously released, output expansion in the period reached only 0.2%, compared to an average forecast of around 0.4% and very close to the lower bound of projections.

Household consumption, the driving force of demand over the previous 13 quarters (when it recorded average growth at 1% per quarter), fell by 1% at the end of last year. Thus, despite an increase in government consumption (0.6%) and gross fixed capital formation (0.4%), domestic demand shrank by 0.4% during the period.

Nevertheless, net exports continued to decline even as imports remained stable.

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