Mexico Macro Monitor: The Global Indicator of Economic Activity shows very weak annual growth (0.5%) as of February

MEXICO - In Brief 25 Apr 2025 by Francisco González

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The Global Indicator of Economic Activity shows very weak annual growth (0.5%) as of February, with a 1.0% monthly increase using seasonally adjusted figures The Global Economic Activity Index (IGAE) continued to show weak annual growth in February 2025 (0.5%), after expanding by 0.2% in January and contracting by an average of -0.1% in the last quarter of the previous year. As a result, the IGAE recorded a 0.3% annual growth rate for the first two months of the year. In February, the agricultural sector fell by -4.3% YoY after growing 14.6% in January, reflecting the high volatility observed since 2023. Meanwhile, the industrial sector grew by 0.4% during the month, following five consecutive months of decline, as both construction and manufacturing posted annual growth rates of 0.5% and 1.8%, respectively. While these are weak increases, they contrast with six consecutive months of contraction in construction and an average decline of -0.5% in manufacturing between October 2024 and January 2025. The rise in manufacturing was partly due to an increase in exports of non-automotive manufactured goods to the U.S. that month, as companies sought to accelerate sales and build up inventories in anticipation of potential future tariffs. Cumulatively, for the first two months of the year, construction remained in decline (-3.0% YoY), while manufacturing showed stagnation (0.3% YoY). GRAPH 1 IGAE: Main sectors and subsectors, February 2025 (Seasonally adjusted % chg.YoY) Source: Data FxRates® & INEGI, Analysis GEA Grupo de Economistas y Asociados. Services sector continued its annual deceleration trend, growing by just 1.0%, with declines in wholesale trade and stagnation in k...