New party, old business
Ozgur Ozel and 91 comrades finally resigned from CHP, forming New Party the same day. More CHP deputies are expected to join New Party in the coming days, and the party has ample staff fired from CHP by Kilicdaroglu to complete the national organization requirements. Yet, these are mere technicalities. The key question is whether the split will divide the opposition vote or increase New Party’s share above the peaks of CHP.
The first essay covers this and other important questions about New Party’s prospects, including a review of recent polls.
The speaker of the parliament Mr. Numan Kurtulmus promised the press that the “framework law” regulating the status of PKK convicts and homecoming militants will be passed next week. The leaks to the press suggest the said legislation will fall short of pro-Kurdish DEM Party’s demands, but it is nevertheless progress in the Peace Process, and may lead to negotiations on a new Constitution in the fall-winter session of the parliament.
The consumer confidence index had another puzzling surge in July, nearing the May 2023 peaks, while the real sector confidence index retreated in July, but remained above the 100-mark. So, as far as soft indicators go, things are surely holding up.
The July CBRT Survey pointed to a stability of sorts in market expectations, albeit at a plateau markedly worse than pre-war levels. According to sectoral inflation expectations household and corporate inflation expectations for the next 12 months improved, but they remain too far off the CBRT trajectory.
Reserves fell in the week through July 17, most of the decline taking place on the last day of the week. Last week, things were better.
Finally, Moody’s took no action regarding the Turkish sovereign rating, keeping the grade three notches below IG and outlook on stable, as expected.
Please note that we are putting our Sunday Weekly on its traditional August holiday. But aside from taking a few short breaks here and there, these grumpy old men will be at their desk, reporting, as usual, on important developments, when need be.
Now read on...
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