No snap elections in 2026, thus spoke the politics author

TURKEY - Report 28 Jun 2026 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

Despite objections from Greek and Israeli lobbies, the NATO Ankara summit is poised to turn into a love-fest between Messrs. Trump and Erdogan, with parties exchanging numerous gifts. Trump’s expected favors to Turkey could help scale up the defense industry and rebuild enough trust in Ankara to solve the S-400 irritant. The summit should also be read as Turkey becoming a functional member of the alliance, but that doesn’t mean she won’t drive hard bargains in future about topics that concern her.

The politics author decided to spare our audience the agony of reading about CHP’s trials and turbulations, save to say that he now considers Ozel launching a new party a done deal. Instead, he answers one of the most FAQs: Will Erdogan call snap elections in 2026?

As an aside, one of Turkey’s gigantic conglomerates Zorlu Holding restructured over $3 billion in debt. Is Zorlu Holding “the canary in the coalmine” for the Turkish business community, which likes to scream “wolf” at the slightest sign of distress?

Sectoral confidence indices recovered across the board in June, most probably on the back of the positive news flow regarding the US-Iran peace deal, but in the quarter as a whole, they remained generally lower than Q1, except for consumer confidence.

Household sectoral inflation expectations eased from elevated levels, but those of market participants and firms were unchanged at 23.8% and 33.1%, respectively.

After a sharp recovery in the week through June 19, reserves weakened again during the 4 days of last week, we estimate, although a good chunk of this was driven by the sharp fall in the gold price.

Turkish Business Association TUSIAD’s competitiveness index improved in the first quarter of the year over the same period of 2025, but the level of competitiveness remains at around its low of the period for which the index is calculated.

There will be important data releases next week, with June inflation topping the list. In line the median consensus, we expect inflation to come in at 1%, with risks tilted slightly to the downside.

Please note that we plan to issue our quarterly/forecast report next Sunday.

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