Obstinate Petro risks blowing up public finances

COLOMBIA - Report 01 Aug 2025 by Juan Carlos Echeverry, Andrés Escobar Arango and Mauricio Santa Maria

The criminal trial of Álvaro Uribe—the most influential political figure in Colombia in the 21st century—has culminated in a ruling that could redefine the country’s relationship between law and power. After years of legal entanglements rooted in a 2012 complaint initiated by Uribe himself, Judge Sandra Heredia convicted the former president on charges of witness bribery and procedural fraud, following a contentious trial marked by heavily debated evidence.

While the ruling has been hailed by the Colombian left as a landmark victory, critics decry it as a politically motivated decision that sets alarming precedents, such as the validation of evidence obtained through illicit surveillance, and breaches of attorney-client privilege. The case now moves to the Superior Court of Bogotá, with an October 8th deadline before a statute of limitations risks extinguishing the criminal proceedings entirely. The outcome could have profound implications not only for Uribe and his political legacy, but also for Colombia’s institutional credibility and its international partnerships—especially with the United States.

For the Colombian and Latin American left, this is a great victory, akin to the convictions of the late Peruvian former president Alberto Fujimori and Brazilian ex-president Jair Bolsonaro. But many believe the conviction may actually help rather than hurt the right-wing cause, in the runup to the 2026 elections. It’s hard to predict whether that might be so. Certainly some see Uribe as the victim of an injustice. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote on the social media outlet X: “Former Colombian President Uribe’s only crime has been to tirelessly fight and defend his homeland.

The weaponization of Colombia’s judicial branch by radical judges has now set a worrisome precedent.” Recall that the United States has justified a tougher stance toward Brazil in tariff negotiations as punishment over Bolsonaro’s treatment. Something similar could befall Colombia, not only in the tariff area but in potential U.S. decertification over the war on drugs, and withdrawal of financial support for key issues of mutual strategic interest.

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