Oval Office showdown: no peace deal in sight, Ukraine fights on amid tough road ahead

UKRAINE - In Brief 02 Mar 2025 by Dmytro Boyarchuk

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I expected Trump’s peace initiative to fail at some stage, but the way it unfolded in the Oval Office was particularly harsh. It took me some time to gather my thoughts and form a vision of how things might develop from here. So, firstly, what happened? Donald Trump ran into serious trouble fulfilling his pre-election pledge to swiftly end Russian aggression. It seems he realized that nothing substantial would happen—neither within his first 100 days nor by the end of the year. But Trump needed something to present to his voters. His administration began pushing the story with a rare earth metals deal. Such a deal could make sense for Ukraine—but only in exchange for security guarantees. However, Trump refused to provide those guarantees, rendering the deal meaningless for Ukrainian leadership. Legal teams produced a draft agreement that was nothing more than a declaration of intent—essentially an empty document. The sole purpose of signing it was to give Trump something to showcase to his voters as proof that he was taking action. There were no provisions for weapons supplies or anything else Ukraine could receive in exchange for the deal. Had the deal been signed, the deep divide between Ukraine’s leadership and the new U.S. administration over Russian aggression would have surfaced sooner or later—one way or another. Trump and his MAGA team believe that Ukraine is in a desperate position and that, with enough pressure, Zelenskiy will accept whatever they propose. However, Volodymyr Zelenskiy likely saw that the U.S. was pulling away, one way or another. Given Ukraine's past experiences—starting with the Budapest Memorandum—he decided that there were clear limits to ...