Political risk of domestic origin is increasing

HUNGARY - In Brief 07 Mar 2026 by Istvan Racz

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What is just happening is nothing else than what we have been predicting for quite a while. You may call it uncertainty around the election, instability or simply political risk, and it exists to a great extent separately from the many problems and threats stemming from today's troublesome external environment, even though closely linked to the latter in different ways.The story starts with Fidesz not doing particularly well in the polls, and the clock ticking fast: there are only a few weeks left until election day. Neither the general economic environment, nor campaign-supporting fiscal measures, and not even the lots of fake information sent out and the smear campaign run against Tisza have proven to be efficient enough in eliminating the opponent's apparent lead in public support. So, Fidesz is pushing hard on the campaign line in which it is best: to generate a political atmosphere of Hungary being under severe external threats, against which only the governing party and mainly PM Orbán can protect the people, provided they vote for Fidesz on April 12, of course.This worked very well in 2022, when there was indeed an immediate threat posed by then newly erupted war in Ukraine, which in itself created a general feeling of a severe threat, not at all free from elements of panic, in Hungary and everywhere else alike. However, this time around the situation is very different: there is no such severe immediate threat in sight, and so Fidesz needs to make massive efforts to fabricate one. And Fidesz has received some forceful external help, underpinning its narrative, in recent days.The concept itself is well-known: the source of the threat is Ukraine, which blackmails ...