Politics tumultuous, econ on autopilot

TURKEY - Report 20 Jul 2025 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

The politics author laments that this is the most difficult period in his 35 years of covering Turkey. Everything he writes below is subject to unusually large margins of error. Nevertheless, he makes bold predictions, believing that shedding some light into the future is better than saying “it all depends”.

In his first essay, he elevates clashes in Syria to the position of leading external risk to political stability. He assigns only a 30% probability to an all-out war, but the negative ramifications for Turkey could be transformative. In addition to derailing the “Peace Process’, civil war could pit Turkey against Israel in a tussle to establish hegemony over Syria.

At home, the next stage in the Peace Process should start with the formation of a parliamentary committee to address Kurdish demands. The politics author predicts it will fail to achieve any results with 65% probability but still gives the benefit of the doubt to Bahceli who should arm-twist Erdogan into concessions, if the former is serious about peace with Kurds.

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