Remittance riches shore up Tajikistan’s external accounts

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA - In Brief 16 Jul 2026 by Ivan Tchakarov

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Tajikistan external story is probably the simplest as the BoP is heavily dominated by remittances from Russia. Tajikistan is the last in the short series on the external accounts of the CCA economies, and it is arguably the most straightforward of all. It has been posting CA surpluses since mid-2020 despite a stream of very robust GDP growth rates of 8% or so as inbound remittances have more than compensated for the widening trade gaps (Graph 1). 1Q26 was not an exception, although there was also some moderation in the deficit of the trade balance due to strong export growth of precious metals, textiles and mineral products (including cement). The 4-q CA surplus is thus now running at an impressive 18.2 percent of GDP. About a million Tajiks are present in Russia at any time, representing a 10 percent of Tajikistan's population. 90 percent of all remittances derive from Russia and their volume picked up pace in tandem with the Russia-Ukraine hostilities given rising demand for male labor in Russia. I think that these inflows will remain strong even when the war in Ukraine ends given the unfavorable demographics in Russia.Graph 1Remittances drive strong CA surplusesSource: Central Bank, Author's calculations The overall BoP is also chiefly driven by CA developments. Financial flows are dwarfed by the CA and its positive balance has contributed to a steady accumulation of FX reserves in the last 5 years or so (Graph 2). As a result, FX buffers have risen to quite comfortable levels (Graph 3).Graph 2Surplus BoP has allowed substantial FX reserve accumulation...Source: Central Bank, Author's calculationsGraph 3...which, in turn, has strengthened FX buffers Source: Central ...