Russian macro: bumpy road behind, sticky road ahead
Rosstat has just released its initial GDP growth estimate for 2025, alongside major revisions to the 2024 figures. It now shows that GDP grew by 4.9% in 2024, up from the previously reported 4.3%, with the first estimate even lower, at 4.1%. So far, only the annual national accounts for 2025 and revised data for earlier years have been published, while quarterly statistics remain unchanged and don’t fully align with the annual numbers. As a result, intra-year trends are still unclear, and short-term growth projections rely on assumptions and estimates from monthly sectoral data.
Economic growth this year may not exceed 2%, assuming other factors remain the same, that no new “bumps on the road” appear and no other obstacles arise. This year growth could end up slightly higher than in 2025, largely because economic activity reportedly picked up at the end of last year amid slowing inflation and the CBR’s key rate cuts. A higher base set in 4Q25 could also give a small boost to 1Q26 figures, setting up a somewhat brighter outlook for the rest of the year. The CBR also plans to continue cutting the key rate.
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