Signs, bridging fissures
The seasonally-adjusted IMACEC saw a steep monthly contraction in September, primarily due to an unusually high concentration of holidays. This year’s atypical seasonality is particularly evident in manufacturing data. Beyond monthly volatility, the underlying trends point to stagnation. While 12-month variations remain positive, this largely reflects past events. For 2024, our baseline scenario remains at 2.2%, but with a downward bias. According to the Q3 national accounts, private consumption has been flat this year, and is expected to grow by 1.5% at most on average in 2024. The outlook for consumption in the coming quarters appears increasingly weak. Investment in machinery and equipment showed relative improvement in Q3, but remains unfavorable overall. Meanwhile, the construction sector has seen no growth for three years. The best news comes from exports.
The slowdown in job creation, which began in May, has persisted through the July-September rolling quarter. A relatively positive development was the shift in employment composition toward private payrolls. A reduction in the labor force explains why the unemployment rate recorded its first decline since the March-May rolling quarter. In September real wages accelerated slightly. Thanks to the sustained wage increases, the overall wage bill continued its robust expansion.
Although the October CPI was unusually high, and came as a significant surprise, it did not signal a resurgence of inflationary pressures. October’s surprising CPI was primarily driven by food, energy, and air transportation. Moreover, nearly half of the monthly variation can be attributed to the electricity CPI. An additional 10.8% increase is expected in January. Most core inflation measures remained below 4%.
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