Sizing up the trouble

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 31 Jul 2025 by Alexandre Schwartsman, Cristina Pinotti and Diego Brandao

In a decree published this Wednesday, President Donald Trump raised the tariff on Brazilian products to 50%. Attached to the decree was a list of 694 products that will be exempt from the new tariff, including items such as orange juice, petroleum derivatives, certain steel products, cellulose, and components of the aviation industry. We cross-referenced the tariff codes (HTSUS) listed as exempt with the products actually exported by Brazil to the U.S. over the past five years, and our analysis suggests that approximately 39% of the exported value would be exempt.

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