South Africa’s investment in infrastructure and shift to sustainable growth

SOUTH AFRICA - Report 24 Apr 2026 by Iraj Abedian

South Africa’s infrastructure investment trajectory has steadily weakened over the past decade, both in absolute terms and relative to peers. From a relatively stable range of around 18–19% of GDP between 2010 and 2015, investment began to trend downward from 2016, falling to just 13.4% by 2025. The most pronounced deterioration occurred during the pandemic period, with investment falling sharply, to 12.3% in 2020. Although there was a partial recovery in 2022–2023, this proved short-lived, with levels declining again thereafter.

In a comparative context, South Africa significantly underperforms. While peers such as India and Indonesia consistently maintain investment rates above 30% of GDP, and even Brazil and Mexico sustain levels in the mid-to-high teens or low 20s, South Africa now sits near the bottom of the sample, broadly in line with Argentina. Notably, countries that have accelerated infrastructure development (e.g., India, Turkey) show sustained higher investment ratios, underscoring the link between investment intensity and growth potential.

Meanwhile, the most significant development in the past 24 months has been the changes within Transnet. The organization appears to have successfully arrested a long-term decline in volumes, signalling a shift from mere operational recovery to enabling sustainable growth.

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