Statistics brings more surprises and looks increasingly volatile

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 17 Feb 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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The Bureau of National Statistics confirmed earlier statements from authorities, announcing that GDP grew by 6.5% in 2025. While the Bureau describes this as a flash estimate, it’s almost certain to hold given the agency’s track record of never revising historical data. In nominal terms, GDP reached KZT159.6 trillion. With the NBK’s officially reported average annual USD/KZT rate at 521.59, Kazakhstan’s dollar-denominated GDP hit a record high of $305.9 billion.In earlier notes, we often pointed out the absence of growth rate chain indices, whether in quarterly GDP data or certain monthly sector indicators. We also mentioned that in many cases, m-o-m and y-o-y figures — whether for specific months or cumulative periods starting in January — don’t always align. Sometimes the numbers look odd and seem to reflect reporting quirks rather than real economic activity. For example, the Bureau reported that in December 2025, construction rose nearly threefold m-o-m, only to drop by almost 94% m-o-m in January 2026. This kind of statistical pattern is fairly typical for the Bureau of National Statistics, with y-o-y figures appearing less volatile. Still, intra-year m-o-m data doesn’t always match actual activity. Similar, though less extreme, patterns can be seen in other monthly indicators. The issue here is not just skewed snapshots of the economy at certain times, but growing gaps between different measurements.We won’t go into more technical details in this short note and will explore the topic further in future reports. Still, it’s wise to treat the official statistics with caution. There’s no doubt the Kazakh economy grew fast last year, but perhaps not as fast as reporte...