Strong growth with (re-)rebalancing…

TURKEY - Report 28 Feb 2025 by Murat Ucer

The Turkish economy expanded at a sequential pace of 1.7%, q/q, in the final quarter of the year, broadly in line with forecasts, after slight contractions in the previous two quarters (in calendar- and seasonally-adjusted terms). Activity expanded by 3%, y/y, in Q4, with GDP thus growing by 3.2% for the year as a whole, down from 5.1% in 2023.

Strong growth in the quarter was accompanied by, notably, a rebalancing of demand back toward domestic demand from foreign demand -- or net exports (of goods and services). Specifically, both private consumption and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) grew at a robust 4.3% and 3.9%, q/q, respectively, while exports contracted (3.3%) as imports surged (5.2%) in the quarter.

That private consumption once again significantly exceeded overall GDP growth is also quite noteworthy.

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